The Idiot-Maker Rally



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This was the rally that made a lot of the smartest people around look like idiots.Almost no one believed that stocks could rise as high and as fast as they have. It was supposed to be a “sucker’s rally.” We were supposed to “retest the March lows.” And stocks were supposed to “run out of steam” numerous times.

But the only suckers this time were the people who bravely stuck their necks out to call the top, only to watch the market make mincemeat out of their predictions.

See the 15 gurus who now look like fools >
Have we missed anyone? Send your suggestions to [email protected] or [email protected]

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title=”Nouriel Roubini: How Low Can The Market Go?”
content=”‘Thus, most likely, we can brace ourselves for new lows on U.S. and global equities in the next 12 to 18 months.’

Nouriel Roubini, March 12. DJIA: 7170
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title=”Cody Willard: Get Ready For Dow 6000″
content=””I still do expect that the 6k-7500 range is probable here for the foreseeable future. And guess what — as I noted at the top of this article, we’re now closer to the top of that range than the bottom of that range. So if you caught any of this rally at all, I think it’s probably time to go ahead and take a good chunk of that 10% move you just caught off the table and wait for the next fat pitch, which will likely come in one of two forms:

1. A huge blow off top to this ongoing bear market rally that takes us close to or above 7500 and sucks in some of the few remaining believers in the stock market. You’ll want to short that move if you’re an aggressive trader.

2. A slow dribble lower and then a panicky sell off closer to 6k and forces even the ‘longest-term’ investor out of the market. You’ll want to buy that move if you’re an aggressive trader.”

Cody Willard, March 12, 2009. DJIA: 7170
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permalink=”john-mauldin-investors-will-get-crushed-over-summer-3″
title=”John Mauldin: Investors Will Get Crushed Over Summer”
content=””So, I know a lot of you have stayed in the market the whole time it has been falling and are now wondering what to do. If you have a 10-year time horizon you probably can buy here and do OK. But I wouldn’t. I think this market is going to have more problems as we confront the real possibility that we will get some really poor earnings for the first and second quarters. The economy is simply weak, and that weakness is hitting more and more companies. From exporting companies to the big international firms, a global slowdown is hitting almost everyone. Even hospitals are being challenged. We could see a real bear market rally lure investors back in, just to crush their hopes this summer.”

John Maudlin, March 14th. DJIA: 7223.98


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[slide
permalink=”nouriel-roubini-its-a-dead-cat-bounce-4″
title=”Nouriel Roubini: It’s A Dead Cat Bounce”
content=””So, in conclusion and caveat emptor for investors: Dear investors, do enjoy this dead cat bounce and bear market sucker’s rally … don’t wait too long until you jump ship while the financial Titanic hits the next financial iceberg: you may get squeezed and crashed in the rush to the lifeboats.”

Nouriel Roubini, March 15: DJIA: 7223.98
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[slide
permalink=”david-rosenberg-475-on-the-sp-5″
title=”David Rosenberg: 475 on the S&P”
content=”‘It would not surprise us to see the S&P 500 gravitate in a 475-650 range for an extended period of time.’

David Rosenberg, April 2 DJIA: 7978.08
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permalink=”dylan-ratigan-suckers-rally-no-question-6″
title=”Dylan Ratigan: Sucker’s Rally. No Question”
content=”Blodget: Last question. You’ve been right in the middle of this meltdown day after day, interviewing the smartest people, etc. So is this a new bull market, or is this another suckers’ rally?

Ratigan: Suckers’ rally. No question. That’s not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That’s just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognised meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes

Dylan Ratigan, April 10. DJIA: 8083.38
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permalink=”andy-kessler-stock-market-isnt-going-higher-7″
title=”Andy Kessler: Stock market Isn’t Going Higher”
content=””Until these issues are resolved, I don’t see the stock market going much higher.”

Andy Kessler, May 12, DJIA: 8469.11
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title=”John Hussman: Abrupt Downside Risk”
content=”‘Overall, I am most concerned about abrupt downside risk’

John Hussman, May 28. DJIA 8403.80
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[slide
permalink=”michael-markoski-the-market-will-head-down-again-this-fall-9″
title=”Michael Markoski: The Market Will Head Down Again This Fall”
content=”‘I believe that the markets are in the later stages of a powerful bear market rally that is close to its peak. I expect the market to trade in a narrow trading range until late this summer before it starts to head down again this fall.’

Michael Markowski, founder of Stock Diagnostics, June 2. DJIA: 8740.87
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[slide
permalink=”joe-weisenthal-the-bull-market-has-run-out-of-steam-10″
title=”Joe Weisenthal: The Bull Market Has Run Out Of Steam”
content=”‘The bull run has run out of steam, felled by higher commodity prices and yields on long bonds that keep pushing higher.’

Joe Weisenthal, June 14 DJIA: 8799.26
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[slide
permalink=”glenn-neely-the-rally-has-ended-11″
title=”Glenn Neely: The Rally Has Ended”
content=”‘Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction. The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!’

Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, June 16, 2009

DJIA: 8504.67
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[slide
permalink=”dave-rovelli-youd-have-to-be-crazy-to-buy-12″
title=”Dave Rovelli: You’d Have To Be Crazy To Buy”
content=”‘If you were to jump in right now, you’re crazy,’

Dave Rovelli, managing director of US equity trading at Canaccord Adams, July 17. DJIA: 8743.94
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permalink=”kathy-boyle-its-a-suckers-rally-13″
title=”Kathy Boyle: It’s A Sucker’s Rally”
content=”‘It’s a sucker’s rally. If you make money here, don’t get greedy.’

Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, says of this week’s market move, July 17. DJIA: 8743.94
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permalink=”bob-janjuah-the-bear-market-will-begin-in-september-14″
title=”Bob Janjuah: The Bear Market Will Begin In September”
content=”‘I expect this risk rally to continue into — and maybe through — a large part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September ‘tipping zone’, driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into markets.’

Bob Janjuah, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, August 12
. DJIA: 9361.61
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permalink=”doug-kass-the-market-has-likely-peaked-15″
title=”Doug Kass: The Market Has Likely Peaked”
content=””Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year.”

Doug Kass, August 26th, 2009. DJIA: 9543.52
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[slide
permalink=”henry-blodget-the-end-of-the-suckers-rally-16″
title=”Henry Blodget: The End Of The Sucker’s Rally”
content=”‘Is that the end of the sucker’s rally?

Henry Blodget, September 2 DJIA: 9280.67
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[slide
permalink=”who-else-belongs-on-the-list-17″
title=”Who Else Belongs On The List?”
content=”Of course, this list is far from complete. There are a lot more people who were laid low by the Idiot Maker Rally. Send us your suggestion to [email protected] or [email protected] Help us assemble the most complete list imaginable.”
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[slide
permalink=”and-if-you-didnt-miss-the-rally-18″
title=”And if you didn’t miss the rally”
content=”See how life is like for the super-duper rich >>
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[/slideshow]

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