Deutsche Bank has released an interesting note based on conversations with the Consumer Electronics Agency. It provides a nice glimpse on what the mood is so far:
DB: We participated in CEA’s Black Friday Results Webinar this week. Below
are some takeaways:
Consumer electronics top 10 “Wish lists” changes from 2008 to 2009, based on phone survey:
*Notebooks still at the top of the list
* MP3, video games and digital cameras moved up the list, while GPS and
DVD players moved down the list
*New to the list this year were E-readers, iPhone, Blu Ray
In store survey on Black Friday for shoppers “high interest” list GPS went from #1 ast year to #4 this year, TV went from #4 last year to #1 this year, Blu Ray move way up from #15 to #3, Laptop up a bit, video games about even Promotional activity, was less intense than CEA forecasted in many products.
*Lowest prices on Blu Ray, netbooks and TV’s was not as low as expected
*Lowest prices on notebooks and GPS was discounted more than expected
*On TVs, the biggest discounts on small TVs while prices on big TVs were less discounted
-CEA raised holiday spending forecast for to -5.9% from -7.5% compared to down -6.4% in holiday 2008.
*Increase mostly due to firmer pricing, particularly in TVs which was helped by better trends on larger screens than expected. 32″ was the sweet spot, but unit sales in 40″+ was better than expected
*Reduced forecast for video game revenues, but this was due to strength in portable units, which lowers ASP’s
*GPS units worse than expected
*Camera outlook increased, with DSLRs surprisingly strong
*Blu Ray units helped by bundling
Based on their survey work, CEA Seemed encouraged with Black Friday
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