GOVERNMENT: There Are More Than 450,000 More Private Sector Jobs Than We realised

This morning the BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing an additional 386,000 payroll jobs as of March 2012. The final revision will be published next February when the January 2012 employment report is released on February 1, 2013. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by unemployment insurance (UI). The time required to complete the revision process—from the full collection of the UI population data to publication of the revised industry estimates—is about 10 months. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels …

Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2012 was 386,000 higher than originally estimated. In February 2013, the payroll numbers will be revised up to reflect this estimate. The number is then “wedged back” to the previous revision (March 2011).

This means the BLS under counted payroll jobs by 386,000 as of March 2012. This preliminary estimate showed an additional 453,000 private sector jobs, but 67,000 fewer government jobs (as of March 2012).

For details on the benchmark revision process, see from the BLS: Benchmark Article and annual benchmark revision for the new preliminary estimate.

The following table shows the benchmark revisions since 1979.

 

YearPercent benchmark revisionBenchmark revision (in thousands)1979 0.5 447 1980 -0.1 -63 1981 -0.4 -349 1982 -0.1 -113 1983 * 36 1984 0.4 353 1985 * -3 1986 -0.5 -467 1987 * -35 1988 -0.3 -326 1989 * 47 1990 -0.2 -229 1991 -0.6 -640 1992 -0.1 -59 1993 0.2 263 1994 0.7 747 1995 0.5 542 1996 * 57 1997 0.4 431 1998 * 44 1999 0.2 258 2000 0.4 468 2001 -0.1 -123 2002 -0.2 -313 2003 -0.2 -122 2004 0.2 203 2005 -0.1 -158 2006 0.6 752 2007 -0.2 -293 2008 -0.1 -89 2009 -0.7 -902 2010 -0.3 -378 2011 0.1 162 2012 0.3 386 * less than 0.05%

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