THE GOOGLE INVESTOR: Earnings Today, Here's What To Expect

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Google Reports Earnings After The Close Google will hold its quarterly conference call to discuss first quarter results today at 1:30 pm Pacific Time (4:30 pm Eastern Time). Join SAI at 4:00 pm ET for real-time analysis. Analysts are specifically looking for guidance on China, details regarding the company’s mobile strategy and any financial clarity into YouTube.  To see specific expectations on key metrics, click here.

GOOG Rises As D-Day Is Here
The stock is quick out of the gate today, climbing nearly $5 to $593 ahead of earnings. At these levels, the stock trades at approximately 21x 2010 EPS and 19x Enterprise Value / EBIT. Other than tonight’s outcome, near-term catalysts include Android and mobile adoption as well as benchmarks surrounding newer initiatives, which up until now have mostly been disappointing. As search matures, Google has yet to develop a strong second growth engine.

Yes, Google Will Beat Estimates But That Might Already Be Priced Into The Stock (Business Insider)
Rory Maher at Business Insider believes a strong quarter is likely priced into the GOOG shares. Anecdotal reports suggest that the recovery in search advertising has continued in 2010. As such, analysts are expecting modest upside to consensus estimates. Google’s stock has drifted up for the past six weeks, but has lagged the market, in part due to the company’s decision to pull out of China. Google will likely need to significantly beat estimates for the stock to rise on the announcement.

Google Sentiment Dropping, Could Indicate Marginal Results For The First Quarter (Seeking Alpha)
Seeking Alpha’s Jett Winter finds analysing investor sentiment a good stock gauge. According to the Piqqem scale, Google’s sentiment has dropped 20 points from the start of the quarter through yesterday. Sentiment for the NASDAQ has also dropped 20 points during the same time frame, so Google’s shift can be attributable to the market. The stock has a current sentiment rating of 26.95, indicating that the search giant might be delivering “lackluster news.”  (We don’t buy this.)

If Facebook Continues To Take Ad Dollars, Could Be Bad News For Google Long Term (TBI Research)
TBI Research’s Rory Maher spoke with various advertisers and found that Facebook is winning over an increasing number of large brand advertisers at the expense of large portals like Yahoo, AOL and MSN. Specifically, “Reach Blocks” on Facebook now cost almost as much as a basic homepage takeover on Yahoo and MSN and the company is having some success getting large advertisers to buy these packages. Brand advertisers are also starting to move more of their search budgets to Facebook self-serve this year. To the extent that search spending continues to move, it’s even bad news for Google.

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