Bill Gross’ short of a lifetime looks pretty good.
On Tuesday, Janus Capital’s Bill Gross said that shorting the German Bund — or betting that yields would rise — was the “short of a lifetime.”
On Wednesday, the yield on German 10-year Bunds basically doubled, and near 11:00 am ET the yield on 10-year Bunds was up to 0.15% after hovering near 7 basis points, or 0.07%, on Tuesday morning.
Since hitting a low of 0.055% on Friday, 10-year Bund yields have almost tripled.
The yields on German Bunds have dropped like a rock over the last several months as European investors sought safety from a flagging economy and the European Central Bank embarked on its latest quantitative easing program, creating a scarcity of debt in the eurozone.
Gross said on Tuesday that betting German Bund yields would rise was his favourite short since the British pound in 1992.
Gross added, however, that the yield on German Bunds wasn’t likely to rise until the ECB concluded its QE program in September 2016. On Wednesday, it looks like this trade has worked out a bit earlier than Gross expected.
Here’s the sharp bounce in 10-year Bund yields on Wednesday.
And the recent divergence between US and German government bonds.