Nobody is going to deny that post-crisis recovery has been disappointingly slow by almost any measure.
But it might not have to stay that way.
Investor and analyst Conor Sen has a great piece up on his blog about the handoff from “recovery” to “growth.”
“Recovery” is essentially just a period of re-utilising the assets that went dormant during the downturn.
“Growth” is the period of building brand new assets.
And there are signs that’s happening now.
One bullish sign is that in recent months there’s been a major acceleration in loan growth at commercial banks.
Another exciting trend is the upturn in wages, which speaks to rising pressure on the existing work force and perhaps the need to kick hiring into higher gear.
Meanwhile, as Conor notes, private residential and non-residential fixed investment remain at shares of the economy that are associated with extreme downturns.
Loan growth is picking up. Wages are rising. And investment remains extremely depressed. The recipe for the kind of real growth people have been yearning for may be here.