Whether measured by the ABS’s quarterly Residential Property Price Index or CoreLogic’s Home Value Index, Australian capital city house price growth continues to slow.
Nothing demonstrates this better than the chart below, supplied by CoreLogic. It shows the quarterly change in capital city prices, overlaying the group’s Home Value Index against the ABS’ RPPI.
Price growth in both measures slowed in the June quarter, and with CoreLogic’s series released far in advance of the official ABS data, it looks like that trend has continued in the current quarter.
“The CoreLogic data is already available to August and shows a further cooling in the rate of growth over the three months,” said Cameron Kusher, research analyst at CoreLogic.
“Given this we can expect the trend towards slower growth to hold over the September 2017 quarter.”
According to Kusher, the slowdown in the CoreLogic series in the September quarter has been driven by Sydney’s housing market, the largest and most expensive in Australia.
“The CoreLogic data to August shows increasing evidence of the Sydney market cooling with values having increased by a much lower 0.3%,” he says, adding that “the daily movements in the CoreLogic series is suggesting Sydney values trended slightly lower over the first 20 days of September”.
So prices in Sydney have, according to CoreLogic’s data, fallen slightly in Sydney so far this month.
And that sharp deceleration, along with a more steady slowdown in Melbourne’s housing market, has seen annual growth in capital city prices fall back to 9.7% in average weighted terms, down from 11.1% at the end of the June quarter.
Outside of Australia largest housing markets, Kusher says that price growth in Hobart, Canberra and Brisbane appears to be accelerating, offsetting continued declines in Perth and Darwin and steady growth in Adelaide.
“While headline growth rates provide a macro-view on the market, each capital city and region of the country is showing its own unique housing market dynamic which is influenced by local demographic and economic trends as well as supply factors,” says Kusher.
CoreLogic’s September Hedonic Home Value Index will be released on Monday, October 2.