Photo: Flickr | Jeff McNeill
The January issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine features its rankings of the top macroeconomic forecasters in the world. Around 400 forecasters were surveyed, including 71 from the U.S.Bloomberg ranks not only the forecasting accuracy of individuals but also of firms. JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UBS, and Normura International comprised the top five firms for forecasting, with a tiny range between scores.
Bruce Kasman, chief economist of the #1 ranked JPMorgan Chase, assesses 2013 like this:
“We’re forming a bottom now, and the trajectory of the global economy as we turn into 2013 is going to be modestly higher, but I think the emphasis is on the ‘modest.’ We’re getting very limited policy support in terms of monetary easing, and we’re continuing to get significant drag on the fiscal side. In fact, the U.S. drag is intensifying.”
In order to qualify for Bloomberg’s list, economists had to submit at least 15 forecasts in a minimum of three economic indicators. Bloomberg analysed forecasts from October 2010 to September 2012 and compared the forecasted numbers to the actual results in order to provide a score from 0-100 based on the accuracy of the forecaster. The more accurate the forecaster, the higher the score. Their results are organised by region.
From Bloomberg’s rankings, we now present the top two forecasters from every region of the world, listed from least to most accurate.
Much thanks to Bloomberg Markets.
Firm: RBS Securities Japan
In a late November note, she wrote, 'Given the recent shakeup in Japan, if there is a recession we do not expect it to be long and deep, in contrast to past recessions. Considering that the US and China have shown signs of recovery recently, we believe the Japanese economy would return to positive growth in 2013.'
Maki defies conventional wisdom and asserts that the drop in the unemployment rate isn't due to discouraged workers who leave the labour force, but through retiring baby boomers.
Firm: Absa Capital
This pair of economists recently lowered their 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts for South Africa to 2.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.
Source: Bloomberg, Absa Capital
Firm: Mario Fiorini Ramirez Inc.
Shapiro, the #1 ranked U.S. forecaster, views the $1 trillion fiscal deficit in the U.S. as a drag on future economic growth, and forecasts high unemployment throughout 2013.
Firm: Credit Agricol
In mid-November, Nazarova's team revised their forecast for the euro zone upwards to -0.1 per cent from -0.2 per cent, and predicted the recession would continue into the fourth quarter.
Firm: Lloyds Banking Group
After 2Q GDP growth in the U.K. was more negative than expected, Page described the economy as being in a 'resilient recession' despite expecting a return to positive growth the next quarter.
Firm: Grupo Financiero Banorte
Casillas (not pictured) was poached from JPMorgan Chase halfway through 2012 to come to GFB. He expects rate increases from Banxico to combat inflation in the near future.
Firm: Dekabank Deutsche Girozentrale
Scheuerle forecasts stagnant euro zone economies in 2013, with nations focusing on structural reforms -- especially regarding new banking rules.