Photo: Flickr | Jeff McNeill
The January issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine features its rankings of the top macroeconomic forecasters in the world. Around 400 forecasters were surveyed, including 71 from the U.S.Bloomberg ranks not only the forecasting accuracy of individuals but also of firms. JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, UBS, and Normura International comprised the top five firms for forecasting, with a tiny range between scores.
Bruce Kasman, chief economist of the #1 ranked JPMorgan Chase, assesses 2013 like this:
“We’re forming a bottom now, and the trajectory of the global economy as we turn into 2013 is going to be modestly higher, but I think the emphasis is on the ‘modest.’ We’re getting very limited policy support in terms of monetary easing, and we’re continuing to get significant drag on the fiscal side. In fact, the U.S. drag is intensifying.”
In order to qualify for Bloomberg’s list, economists had to submit at least 15 forecasts in a minimum of three economic indicators. Bloomberg analysed forecasts from October 2010 to September 2012 and compared the forecasted numbers to the actual results in order to provide a score from 0-100 based on the accuracy of the forecaster. The more accurate the forecaster, the higher the score. Their results are organised by region.
From Bloomberg’s rankings, we now present the top two forecasters from every region of the world, listed from least to most accurate.
Much thanks to Bloomberg Markets.
Firm: RBS Securities Japan
Score: 49.27
In a late November note, she wrote, 'Given the recent shakeup in Japan, if there is a recession we do not expect it to be long and deep, in contrast to past recessions. Considering that the US and China have shown signs of recovery recently, we believe the Japanese economy would return to positive growth in 2013.'
Source: Bloomberg, NASDAQ
Firm: Informa Global Markets
Score: 56.13
In April, Blumenthal was ranked the top forecaster for Canada's GDP and third for employment numbers by Bloomberg.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: CIBC
Score: 56.35
Shenfeld has made headlines recently by suggesting that falling home prices in Canada aren't necessarily all bad news, since they might free up other avenues for spending.
Source: Bloomberg, CBC
Firm: Barclays
Score: 56.85
Maki defies conventional wisdom and asserts that the drop in the unemployment rate isn't due to discouraged workers who leave the labour force, but through retiring baby boomers.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: Absa Capital
Score: 57.10
This pair of economists recently lowered their 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts for South Africa to 2.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.
Source: Bloomberg, Absa Capital
Firm: Mario Fiorini Ramirez Inc.
Score: 57.8
Shapiro, the #1 ranked U.S. forecaster, views the $1 trillion fiscal deficit in the U.S. as a drag on future economic growth, and forecasts high unemployment throughout 2013.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: Barclays
Score: 58.83
Luna has forecasted GDP growth of 3.8 per cent in 2013 followed by a slight decline to 3.5 per cent in 2014.
Source: Bloomberg, Citi via Business Insider
Firm: Nomura International
Score: 58.89
Montalto believes the most recent data shows the South Africa economy is slowing, but does not think the central bank will cut rates unless foreign direct investment falls.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters
Firm: Credit Agricol
Score: 60.24
In mid-November, Nazarova's team revised their forecast for the euro zone upwards to -0.1 per cent from -0.2 per cent, and predicted the recession would continue into the fourth quarter.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: Lloyds Banking Group
Score: 60.56
After 2Q GDP growth in the U.K. was more negative than expected, Page described the economy as being in a 'resilient recession' despite expecting a return to positive growth the next quarter.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: JPMorgan Chase
Score: 60.63
Akira correctly predicted the sharp fall in GDP growth that saw Brazil go from 7.5 per cent growth rate in 2010 to just 2.7 per cent the following year. His estimate for 2011 was 3.8 per cent.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters
Firm: Grupo Financiero Banorte
Score: 60.67
Casillas (not pictured) was poached from JPMorgan Chase halfway through 2012 to come to GFB. He expects rate increases from Banxico to combat inflation in the near future.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: Votarantim Asset Management
Score: 61.52
Fix expects that the Brazilian central bank will raise rates to combat inflation that currently runs above its target. Brazilian economists expect growth will double to a little under 4 per cent in 2013.
Source: Bloomberg, Washington Post
Firm: Motilal Oswal Securities
Score: 61.94
Mitra has predicted that the rupee appreciates to 52/USD in 2013 and 50/USD the following year -- still a far cry from its high of 44.4/USD in July 2011.
Source: Bloomberg, The Economic Times
Firm: Societe Generale
Score: 62.42
Wei believes the October slowdown in Chinese lending is an indication that the People's Bank of China is targeting $8.5 trillion in loans for 2012.
Source: Bloomberg, MarketWatch
Firm: Norddeutsche Landesbank Girozentrale
Score: 62.79
Kramer dismissed the August spike in inflation as an outlier, blaming rising energy costs and predicting a return to decreased inflation for the weak euro zone economies.
Source: Bloomberg
Firm: Goldman Sachs
Score: 63.40
In May, Yu cut the Chinese 2012 GDP forecast to 8.1 per cent from 8.6 per cent, much closer to the 7.8 per cent growth rate currently predicted by the IMF. Yu views the lack of socioeconomic reforms as a major impediment to Chinese growth.
Source: Bloomberg, IMF
Firm: Dekabank Deutsche Girozentrale
Score: 65.93
Scheuerle forecasts stagnant euro zone economies in 2013, with nations focusing on structural reforms -- especially regarding new banking rules.
Source: Bloomberg
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