The Chinese Economy Could Have Already Passed It Stimulus Sweetspot

Getty/ Feng Li

The Westpac MNI Chinese Consumer Sentiment (CSI) was released today and showed a potentially sobering reality, after the recent run of stronger-than-expected data in China recently.

Coming in at 112.6 the index is down 8.6 points for a loss of 7.1% on the month. That reverses the recent recovery with the year-on-year rate of decline now 9.6%.

Huw Mackay, Westpac’s Senior International Economist, said in a note accompanying the release:

The survey indicates that the anxieties gnawing away at the Chinese consumer through the first four months of the year have returned after a temporary ‘reprieve’ in May…

Current assessments of family finances and business conditions fell by more than the headline, while business conditions one year ahead were somewhat more resilient.

Of course China is less reliant on consumer and household consumption than countries like Australia and other developed nations but the crash in consumer sentiment is palpable and the trend in business is also yet to turn.

Recent Chinese data, particularly the Flash PMI for June has been solid time will tell whether, like sentiment it turns down again in the months ahead.

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