Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Tonight begins what we suspect will be the busiest 48 hours in the history of economics.Thanks to the shortened week, and just generally the scheduling of events, what starts tonight is going to be epic.
We’re just going to run through all the data and events, which start tonight.
At 7:00 PM ET tonight we get Korean industrial production. Following that at 7:50 comes Japanese industrial production. Those will both give good insight into the state of the Asian economy.
There are a few more scattered reports overnight (e.g. German retail sales at 2:00 AM ET), but the real party starts tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM ET. That’s when jobs week begins with the Challenger Jobs Cuts number.
That’s followed up 45 minutes later at 8:15 AM ET with the ADP employment report, which is considered to be the most important preview of the official Non-Farm Payrolls Report (which comes out on Friday). Analysts expect to see 150K.
Then at 8:30 AM ET we get two more monster data points: Initial jobless claims (analysts expect a flat reading of 370K) and the second revision of Q1 GDP (analysts expect growth of 1.5 per cent, which is the same as the last reading).
But the day is hardly done then!
At 9:45 AM ET comes the Chicago PMI report (a key regional indicator) and at 10:00 AM comes NAPM-Milwaukee.
On top of all these data points, as the day goes on, chain store sales will be updating their May figures.
But the day doesn’t end there!
On top of all that, Ireland will be having a referendum on whether to join Europe’s fiscal compact. It’s likely to pass, but there’s still a big undecided contingent that could wreck the whole thing in the end. Polls close at 10:00 PM Ireland time, but counting isn’t expected until Friday morning.
The REAL fun, however, begins Thursday night…
That’s when global PMI day kicks off.
PMI day is the first of every month, when countries around the world are surveyed on the health of their manufacturing sectors.
Via Markit, here’s the full schedule (with times scheduled in UK time). The first one that people will be paying super close attention to will be the China PMI at 3:30 AM UK time, which is 10:30 PM Eastern Time.
So from Thursday night to Friday morning we get rapid fire PMIs.
And even that’s not it.
Friday is going to be a total monster in the US.
At 8:30 we get THE JOBS REPORT!!
Analysts expect 150K net new nonfarm payrolls.
Here are some expectations for the sub-numbers
- Analysts expect 160K private payrolls
- 16K new manufacturing jobs
- The unemployment rate will stay at 8.1 per cent.
Normally the Jobs Report is the only real party in town on that day, but not this week.
Also at 8:30 there will be Personal Income and Spending (which will be way overshadowed having the misfortune of getting released at the exact same time as Non-Farm Payrolls).
Then at 10:00 AM there’s the ISM report, which is separate from the Markit PMI report in the schedule above. We can not remember ever the ISM coming out on the same day as Non-Farm Payrolls.
Also at the same time: Construction spending comes out, and that’s expected to grow by 0.4 per cent.
And if all that weren’t enough… US vehicle sales will be coming out all day.
Oh and at some point we’ll get the results of that Irish fiscal compact referendum.
So yes, we feel comfortable saying you won’t find a busier period for economic data. Ever.