Update: POLITICO is now reporting that the Congressional Budget Office has found that Boehner’s plan falls $150 billion short of the $1 trillion in advertised savings. This development will only make it easier for GOP lawmakers to buck their party leadership and oppose the bill.Original: A day before the House of Representatives votes on Speaker of the House John Boehner’s plan to raise the debt ceiling and lower the deficit, it is quickly becoming evident that the plan is now dead on arrival.
Democrats and conservative Republicans have lined up in opposition to the plan, which would increase the debt limit in two stages, with the later tranche conditional on the adoption of deeper spending cuts next year.
Republican-leaning groups from the Club for Growth to the Heritage Foundation have publicly opposed the bill, as have many tea party Republicans.
It is a given that for the Boehner plan to even pass the House it will need Democratic support — no have yet Democrats stepped forward to back the proposal, and some of the most-likely members to get behind it have criticised it.
Piling on, President Barack Obama threatened to veto the Boehner plan Tuesday, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said it is “dead on arrival” in his chamber.
Reid appears to have made a smart strategic decision to delay a Senate vote on his own plan, until after the House votes on the Boehner plan.
When it fails tomorrow — as it almost certainly will — Reid will move to pass his own proposal — or a slightly modified version more appealing to Republicans — ramping up pressure on Boehner to agree to a nearly identical plan that raises the debt limit through the end of 2012.
If most of the 193 House Democrats fall in behind Reid proposal as expected, Democrats will only need a few dozen Republicans to cross over.
Short of starting over, the Reid plan appears to be the only way forward in these negotiations.
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