In his latest weekly commentary, Jeff Saut hits on a key theme for the market right now:
Not much has changed from 1917 and 2012, just the players, not the emotions of fear, hope, and greed; or, supply versus demand, as we potentially near the maturing stage of this current bull market. Of course stocks can still travel higher in a maturing bull market, but at this stage we should keep Don Guyon’s insight about maturing “bulls” in mind. Verily, this week celebrates the third year of the Bull Run, which began on March 9, 2009 and we were bullish. With the S&P 500 (SPX/1369.63) up more than 100% since the March 2009 “lows” it makes this one of the longest bull markets ever. As the invaluable Bespoke Investment Group writes:
“Going all the way back to 1928, the current bull market ranks as the ninth longest ever. Even more impressive is the fact that of the nine bull markets that lasted longer, none saw a gain of 100% during their first three years. Based on the history of prior bulls that have hit the three-year mark, year four has also been positive.”
Now, recall those negative nabobs that told us late last year the first half of 2012 would be really bad? W-R-O-N-G, for the SPX is off to its ninth best start of the year, while the NASDAQ (COMPQ/2976.19) is off to its best start ever! In seven out of the past 10 “best starts,” the SPX was higher at year-end, which is why I keep chanting, “You can be cautious, but don’t get bearish.”
And that last line is the real problem.
Nobody seems to be too comfortable with the rip-roaring rally since December. And yet, everything seems like it should keep pointing up. Good luck.
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