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How does the current bear compare with previous bear markets? Since 1950, the bottoming process has ranged from around six weeks to eight months. We’re now approaching the sixth month of an apparent bottoming process.
Here’s a set of charts showing today’s bear with the eight completed bear markets since 1950 and how the S&P 500 index performed during the 12 months following the index low. For the sake of completeness, we’ve included the near-bear decline that accompanied the Gulf War of 1990 — just shy of the 20% decline of an “official” bear.
The first slide shows 11 bear (or near-bear) markets since 1950. The next 10 slides analyse these bottoms in detail.
Doug has a BA from Stetson University and an MA and PhD from Duke. Disclosure: Doug follows a tactical asset allocation strategy based on 10- and 12-month moving averages. He holds no equities at this time. Contact him by email: [email protected]. Visit his website: dshort.com. Subscribe to his blog feed
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