It’s been a fairly positive start to the week for the Australian dollar as another night of record highs on US stock markets and a solid bounce in the price of oil drove a generally more positive outlook for risk assets like the Aussie.
The price action also suggests that the AUDUSD retains support on any dips at the moment.
After making a low around 0.7635 yesterday the Aussie traded to a high of 0.7692 before dipping back to 0.7676 as traders await the release of the latest batch of RBA board minutes to be released at 11.30am this morning.
According to the CBA’s chief currency strategist Richard Grace, a big part of the Aussie dollar’s rise was the weakness in the US dollar. That came after the release of “June TIC data showed an unexpected large monthly capital outflow from the U.S. economy; the largest monthly outflow on record, of $202.8 billion”.
Looking at the day ahead today’s RBA meeting minutes from this month’s rate cut is the local economic data highlight, Grace says. The CBA isn’t anticipating much reaction from Aussie dollar traders. But the fact no one is really expecting anything could actually be a precondition to a move.
Should the minutes reflect a board which is either more, or less, dovish than the markets’ current read on the outlook for RBA interest rate moves the Aussie could react once the data is released.