The Australian dollar looks set to tread water to start the new trading week

Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

The Australian dollar has opened the new week slightly weaker, falling back below the US76 cent level in early trade.

Here’s the scoreboard as at 8am AEST.

  • AUD/USD 0.7596 , -0.0009 , -0.12%
  • AUD/JPY 86.57 , 0.10 , 0.12%
  • AUD/CNH 5.1680 , 0.0013 , 0.03%
  • AUD/EUR 0.6663 , -0.0001 , -0.02%
  • AUD/GBP 0.5893 , 0.0002 , 0.03%
  • AUD/NZD 1.0440 , 0.0009 , 0.09%

As opposed to previous releases, the Aussie was largely unmoved by the release of US non-farm payrolls on Friday evening with another strong increase in employment offset by wage growth that undershot expectations.

“US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected — 222,000 versus consensus of 178,000 — and the previous month’s increase was revised higher to 152,000,” said Elias Haddad, senior currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank.

“However, US wage growth remains muted with average hourly earnings up just 2.5% per annum in June and the previous month was revised lower to 2.4% per annum.”

Markets had been expecting an annual increase of 2.6%, leaving the US dollar relatively unchanged from the levels it was trading at prior to the release despite the strength in hiring.

“In the absence of faster US wage growth, there is little to move the Fed towards an increased pace of rate hikes,” said Haddad.

As seen in the 5-minute chart below, that ensured the AUD/USD had no discernible reaction to the jobs report.


After a flurry of activity to end the week, the data calendar in Asia slows noticeably today, likely ensuring a quiet session for the Aussie.

While China will release consumer and producer price inflation figures for June at 11.30am AEST, they’re unlikely to move the Aussie significantly in the absence of a shock result arriving.

Outside of those releases the data calendar is quiet, suggesting that movements in the USD/JPY — often influential on the US dollar index in Asia — along with those in Chinese commodity futures, may help determine where the Aussie heads today.

Imre Speizer, senior market strategist at Westpac, said that the AUD/USD would probably be range-bound between 0.7570 and 0.7630 during today’s session.

Later in the session, markets will receive German trade, Eurozone investor sentiment and US consumer credit figures.

None appear likely to have a large impact on the Aussie.