The Australian dollar is back above US 77 cents this morning, the first time that’s been seen since late September.
Having tried and failed to bust selling resistance just below .7700 on several occasions on Wednesday, including just before the release of Chinese GDP, the AUD/USD eventually broker higher in US trade, seemingly taking its cue from another surge in crude oil prices.
The AUD/USD rose to as high as .7729 at one point, the highest level seen since September 8, before easing lower in the latter parts of the US session.
At the close, the AUD/USD finished trade at .7721, the highest closing level seen since April 26 this year.
Sitting above 77 cents, the Aussie is now in a region that it has failed to break above on eight separate occasions since mid-August.
Technical traders will be eyeing off a test of the August 10 high of .7756, with a break above this level likely to encourage further buying in the Aussie.
Whether or not that occurs today will likely come down to two specific events — the release of Australia’s September jobs report at 11.30am AEDT, along with the third and final US presidential debate that will begin 30 minutes later.
“Probably much more relevant for Australian markets today is the monthly labour market lottery,” said Ray Attrill, co-head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank.
“NAB’s forecast for employment is a rise of 30,000, with the possibility that an even higher print could be in the offing owing to monthly sample variability.
“The unemployment rate in September is forecast to be steady at 5.6%, unchanged from August. Higher employment usually brings you a monthly lift in the participation rate that we expect will have risen from 64.7% to 64.9%, enough with much stronger employment should still keep the unemployment rate steady at 5.6%.”
On the presidential debate, Attrill suggests that “with some bookies already paying out on a Clinton victory on 8 November, interest today may be more for its entertainment value than a genuine interest in Trump’s last chance to pull back from the electoral abyss”.
You just never know. One suspects that there’ll be a few “Hail Mary’s” thrown by Trump given his position in the polls.
Outside of those events, movements in crude oil futures, along with the USD/CNY around the PBOC fix at 12.15pm AEDT, are likely to be influential on the Aussie.
Later in the session, the European Central Bank will hold its latest monetary policy meeting with most interest likely to be on comments from president Mario Draghi in relation to the possibility of tapering the bank’s asset purchase program.
Elsewhere, markets will also receive UK retail sales along with the latest Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales in the states.
Here’s the Aussie dollar scoreboard as at 8am AEDT.
- AUD/USD 0.7717 , -0.0004 , -0.05%
- AUD/JPY 79.82 , -0.04 , -0.05%
- AUD/CNH 5.1996 , -0.001 , -0.02%
- AUD/EUR 0.7031 , -0.0004 , -0.06%
- AUD/GBP 0.6276 , -0.0006 , -0.10%
- AUD/NZD 1.0663 , -0.0006 , -0.06%
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