The Australian dollar is going nowhere as traders wait for bigger events later in the week


The Australian dollar continues to gravitate around the US76 cent level, probing both above and below this level before closing flat for the session.

Here’s the scoreboard as at 8am AEST:

AUD/USD 0.7600 , 0 , 0.00%
AUD/JPY 86.02 , -0.05 , -0.06%
AUD/CNH 5.1671 , -0.0002 , 0.00%
AUD/EUR 0.6695 , 0.0001 , 0.01%
AUD/GBP 0.5873 , -0.0003 , -0.05%
AUD/NZD 1.0425 , 0.0003 , 0.03%

And here’s the 5-minute AUD/USD chart.

AUD/USD 5-MInute Chart

A fairly uneventful session if there ever was one, rising to as high as .7632 before plummeting to a low of .7567 midway through the session.

The Aussie ignored geopolitical concerns surrounding North Korea, and was largely unmoved by the release of the US Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes and soft US economic data during the session.

In the end it finished almost unchanged from Tuesday’s closing level.

Perhaps the lack of movement is because of the long summer days in the northern hemisphere, or maybe it’s because the US non-farm payrolls report for June is fast approaching.

One suspects that it’s a little of column A and B.

Turning to Thursday’s session, the data calendar will start slowly before reaching its crescendo during North American trade.

In Australia, markets will receive international trade figures for May, with economists expecting the surplus to rebound modestly after a sharp plunge in April following supply disruptions to coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie.

Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank, says that this report may surprise to the upside, helping to support the Aussie as a consequence.

“The trade balance is expected to post a surplus of $1 billion,” he says. “Our Australian economics team see the risk of a larger $1.8 billion surplus, which would generate up to a 0.5% increase in AUD/USD over a 24 hour period.”

The report will arrive at 11.30am AEST.

Later in the session, all interest will be on the ADP National Employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI that will be released in the US.

With the former a lead indicator for this Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, and the latter a gauge on the sector that makes up just shy of 90% of the US economy, they understandably carry the potential to shift currency markets, including the Aussie.

Weekly jobless claims will also be released in the US, as will Canadian trade and building approvals for May. They’ll all play second fiddle to the releases above.