Despite a whirlwind of potential market-moving events, the Australian dollar did next to nothing overnight, pretty much sitting where Asia left it late in New York trade.
When we say nothing, perhaps that’s a little unfair — the AUD/USD did move in a range between .7548 to .7592 over European and US trade, although it was a remarkably calm session all things considered.
The thin trading range came despite the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC September policy meeting — something that seemingly took another step towards a US rate hike arriving in December — along with another slide in the crude oil price, the second in a row.
Tapas Strickland, economist at the National Australia Bank, put its resilient performance down to stability in the Chinese yuan along with further strength in coking coal prices.
“That move was helped by a higher CNY fix against a fairly stable RMB basket, along with reports that the Q4 Coking Coal Contract price in Australia had been set at $US200 a tonne, a massive 100% increase on Q3,” he said.
“Very rough back of the envelope calculations suggest that could boost export earnings by up to $A1bn a month, and potentially halve the monthly trade deficit.”
A lift in the British pound in Asian trade also helped the Aussie, ensuring a modest overall gain for the session.
The AUD/USD currently buys .7563.
On what will be an otherwise quiet Thursday session data wise, most attention today will be on the release of Chinese trade figures for September later in the session, potentially providing a catalyst to move the Aussie one way or another.
Economists are looking for exports to fall 3% year-on-year in US dollar terms, and imports to increase 1% over the same period. This would leave the trade surplus at $US53 billion, up from $US52.05 billion in August.
There is no set time for the release but it could arrive around 2pm AEDT if historic patterns are anything to go by.
Outside of the Chinese data, there are no market-moving events scheduled in Asia, likely ensuring that the Chinese yuan fix from the PBOC at 12.15pm AEDT, along with movements in crude futures and US 10-year bond yields, will be influential on the Aussie during the session.
Here’s the scoreboard as at 7.55am AEDT:
- AUD/USD 0.7559 , 0.0024 , 0.32%
- AUD/JPY 78.76 , 0.77 , 0.99%
- AUD/CNH 5.0829 , 0.0133 , 0.26%
- AUD/EUR 0.6867 , 0.0051 , 0.75%
- AUD/GBP 0.6191 , -0.0022 , -0.35%
- AUD/NZD 1.0695 , 0.0015 , 0.14%
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