The Australian dollar climbed back above 80 cents overnight, aided by strength in commodity prices, month-end flows and renewed US dollar weakness on the back of continued US political uncertainty.
However, as seen in the scoreboard from 6.55am AEST, it fell hard against both the euro and British pound.
AUD/USD 0.8003 , 0.0017 , 0.21%
AUD/JPY 88.23 , -0.10 , -0.11%
AUD/CNH 5.3830 , 0.0055 , 0.10%
AUD/EUR 0.6756 , -0.0044 , -0.65%
AUD/GBP 0.6055 , -0.0027 , -0.44%
AUD/NZD 1.0649 , 0.0025 , 0.24%
AUD/CAD 0.9987 , 0.0062 , 0.62%
“The pattern of a weaker USD has continued to play out overnight with the Bloomberg Spot Dollar index off another 0.29% and the DXY down a larger 0.48%,” said David de Garis, economist at the National Australia Bank.
“It’s been a combination of continued momentum appetite for the Euro, aided by somewhat better-than-expected data out of Europe, mixed data from the US, and over recent hours, more revolving doors at the White House.”
While the Aussie underperformed against European currencies, its strength against the greenback was assisted by some enormous gains across commodity markets.
Iron ore prices jumped by 7.3% on Monday with futures continuing to gain overnight, pointing to the likelihood that the move higher will continue on Tuesday. Copper also hit a fresh two-year high while WTI crude oil futures rose above the $50 a barrel level for the first time since May.
As a commodity currency, that helped to lift the AUD/USD from a low of .7953 struck earlier in the session.
After a busy start to the week, the economic calendar goes up gear on Tuesday, headlined by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August interest rate decision at 2.30pm AEST.
“The two keys areas the market will be interested in are whether it changes the language around the exchange rate other than to again note that a low rate would/could be helpful and its description of the economy and summary of forecasts that will be unveiled in full on Friday,” says de Garis.
This 10-second guide has further information on what to expect from the post-meeting statement.
Before that decision arrives, markets will also receive a plethora of data releases both from Australia and abroad.
On the domestic front, two lots of PMI reports will be released — one from the Ai Group and another from the Commonwealth Bank-IHS Markit — along with CoreLogic’s monthly house price index and the latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence report.
The RBA will also release its monthly commodity price index at 4.30pm AEST.
From a regional perspective, there’ll be a raft of manufacturing PMI reports released across Asia including from China, Japan and South Korea.
If there is to be a reaction in the Aussie, it’ll likely come from the release of the China PMI from IHS-Markit. It will hit at 11.45am AEST.
Later in the session, the PMI deluge continues in Europe and the US. Elsewhere the first read of eurozone Q2 GDP will be released along with personal spending and income data from the US, a report that includes core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure of gauging price pressures.
It’s expected to increase by a paltry 0.1% for June, leaving the increase on a year earlier at 1.4%, below the Fed’s 2% target.
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