The Australian dollar is almost exactly where Asia left it in early trade on Thursday.
It finished Wednesday’s session buying .7588, representing a decline of 0.28% from the previous close. Compared to the fireworks of previous days, it was a quiet session, trading in a range of less than 50 pips.
As at 7.40am AEST, the AUD/USD buys .7585.
Aside from the release of Australian retail sales figures for June at 11.30am AEST, it looks set to be another quiet session for the Aussie, at least going off the economic data and events calendar.
There’s next to nothing else going on in Asia.
On the retail sales report, Ray Attrill, global co-head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank, is looking for an upside surprise in both the monthly and quarterly volume figures, the latter feeding into household consumption in the upcoming Q2 GDP report.
“Today sees the release of retail sales for June, which we expect was boosted by winter sales of clothing following the (late) arrival of colder weather (NAB +0.5%, market +0.3%),” says Attrill.
“There has been little to no growth in the department stores category for the past two months and the speciality clothing, footwear, and personal accessory store category was down a sizeable 1.2% in May, flat sales attributable in part to the late onset of winter.
“This month’s release comes with volumes for the June quarter, that we expect rose 0.6%, versus 0.5% in Q1 (market +0.5%),” he adds.
Following that release, the next event of note will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meeting where the bank is widely expected to cut interest rates.
“A 25bps cut to the current 0.5% Bank Rate is about 90% discounted and is what NAB expects to be delivered,” says Attrill.
“Alongside, we see a fair chance of an addition to the current £375bn QE purchases of gilts, a total last increased back in July 2012. 20 of 44 analysts polled by Bloomberg expect an increase.”
Beyond the BoE, markets will also receive weekly jobless claims data along with factory orders from the US.
Here’s the Aussie dollar scoreboard, as at 7.40am AEST.
- AUD/USD 0.7585 , -0.0003 , -0.04%
- AUD/JPY 76.79 , -0.02 , -0.03%
- AUD/CNH 5.0363 , -0.0041 , -0.08%
- AUD/EUR 0.6802 , -0.0003 , -0.04%
- AUD/GBP 0.5691 , -0.0001 , -0.02%
- AUD/NZD 1.0592 , -0.0004 , -0.04%
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