The Australian dollar ended Monday almost exactly where it started


The Australian dollar, like most major currencies, did very little overnight, closing the session almost exactly where it started.

An economic calendar devoid of major data releases, along with the onset of holidays around the world, all but ensured that.

Here’s the early Tuesday scoreboard as at 7.50am AEST.

  • AUD/USD 0.7502 , 0.0002 , 0.03%
  • AUD/JPY 83.17 , 0.02 , 0.02%
  • AUD/CNH 5.1803 , 0.0036 , 0.07%
  • AUD/EUR 0.7079 , 0.0006 , 0.08%
  • AUD/GBP 0.6039 , 0.0001 , 0.02%
  • AUD/NZD 1.0769 , 0.0004 , 0.04%

And here’s the AUD/USD hourly chart, showing the Aussie’s modest recovery after falling to the lowest level since mid-January earlier in the session.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

The rebound in the Aussie came despite weakness in base metals prices, along with a continued slide in iron ore markets. A modest pullback in US bond yields, undermining the US dollar, helped to support the Aussie’s recovery.

Offering little hope for a pickup in market activity in the near-term, the economic calendar on Tuesday is yet again absent of market moving events.

If there is to be any interest during the Asian session, it’s likely to fall on the release of the National Australia Bank’s Australian business confidence survey for March.

After hitting multi-year highs in January, and seeing those moves largely reversed, markets will be looking to see whether the measures on confidence and conditions stabilise or continue to weaken.

Given the RBA’s increased concern over labour market conditions in its latest monetary policy statement, there’s likely to be plenty of attention on the survey’s employment subindex, particularly as it has indicated that hiring levels have been above those levels reported in the official ABS data.

Outside of the NAB survey, there’s nothing of note on the regional economic data calendar.

China could release updated banking lending and monetary growth figures for March at any point during the week, so that’s something for traders to consider today.

Given the lack of big economic data releases and events, movements in Chinese commodity futures, USD/JPY and US treasury yields will likely dictate those in the Aussie during the session.

After a lull in Asia, the calendar picks up heading into Europe with the release of UK consumer price inflation, German ZEW survey and industrial production figures for the Eurozone.

In the US, the NFIB small business optimism survey will be released alongside the JOLTS job survey for February.

Following a strong move higher in crude oil futures in recent days, the latest US crude inventory from the API could also prove influential.

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