The Apple Investor is a daily report from SAI. Sign up here to receive it by email.
AAPL Slides With Market
The market was up this morning, but started sliding midday, and shares of AAPL are following the same trajectory — currently trading flat after a strong opening today. Upcoming catalysts include monthly NPD data (Mac / iPod business); holiday iPhone and iPad sales updates and carrier expansion; new content revenue streams such as video, books and social (Ping); moving iTunes into the cloud; and the uptake of refreshed Apple TV. AAPL trades at 14x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (incl. long-term marketable securities).
Analyst Pounds The Table On Apple Going Into 2011 (Wedge Partners)
Brian Blair at Wedge Partners believes Apple remains the best-positioned company in the tech sector as investors exit the year and look toward 2011. The company continues to experience tremendous product momentum across the iPhone and iPad sectors which are still in the early stages of growth. Brian sees meaningful opportunity in the Mac line-up with channel checks showing higher than expected unit demand for the new MacBook Air (online and in-store). He sees continued momentum into 2011 and even the most bullish scenario of 15% upside from current street numbers suggests a P/E multiple under 20x.
iPad’s Dominance Means Nothing Right Now (GigaOM)
The iPad dominates the global tablet market, accounting for 95.5% of all shipments in the third quarter, according to Strategy Analytics. While it’s unquestionably a success for Apple, it’s also a statistic that belies the nature of the clash to come for tablet devices. Claiming that Apple is dominating the tablet market is a little like saying Alexander Graham Bell dominated the telephone industry in 1876. This doesn’t mean competitors can’t and won’t catch up. John Gruber disagrees, “If only Bell had managed to create a massive monopoly that lasted a century and ended only when the government broke it apart.” Agreed.
iPhone 4 Finally Available Within 24 Hours In The US (MacRumors)
Availability of the iPhone 4 continues to improve in the U.S., with the company’s online store now offering shipping estimates of “within 24 hours” for new orders. After spending much of the summer with three-week shipping estimates, supplies of the iPhone 4 began to increase in early October with a move to 5-7 business day shipping estimates. Internationally, however, waits are averaging two weeks.
Netbook Spending Continues To Decline In favour Of The iPad (ChangeWave)
The iPad is taking a bite out of planned netbook sales confirming recent trends, according to market watcher ChangeWave. In surveying over 3,000 consumers on spending plans, 14% of those who plan on buying a laptop in the next 90 days say it will be a netbook. That’s down from 18% at the start of the year and down 10 points from the peak netbook in June of 2009. One in four respondents said they plan to purchase a tablet computer in the future, with 80% saying their choice will be an iPad.
Early MacBook Air Issues Arise (Cult Of Mac)
Early MacBook Air adopters have reported seeing video anomalies and kernel panics on the new 11-inch and 13-inch models of the MacBook Air. Additional reports about the video problem have been posted to Apple’s discussion forums as well as complaints about crashing issues. Uh oh. Let’s pray this isn’t another Antennagate.