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AAPL Sliding On Black Friday
Stocks are on the rise on light volume to break a six-session losing streak. A decent start to the holiday shopping season is helping offset continued fears about the euro zone’s debt crisis. Shares of AAPL are sliding while the rest of tech is up strong. Catalysts include iPhone upgrade cycles and adoption; update to the iPad in early 2012; continued market share growth of the Mac business line; penetration in China and emerging markets; the evolution and potential re-conception of Apple TV; and platforms such as mobile advertising (iAd), books / publishing, gaming, mapping and social (Ping, see below). Shares of Apple trade at 8.2x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities).iPhone Users More Loyal Than Android Users (Reuters)
Wireless users who currently own an iPhone are more likely to stay loyal to their current smartphone platform than owners of any other OS, according to market research firm GfK. In a survey of 4,500 consumers, 84% of current iPhone owners plan to purchase another iPhone as their next handset. That compares to 60% of Android users and 48% of BlackBerry owners.
Apple To Begin Production On Apple TV In February, Says Analyst (Business Insider)
Apple is much closer than people think to building a television says Jefferies & Co. analyst Peter Misek. He believes that “retooling of the line has begun or is about to begin at the facility with February as a preliminary time frame for commercial production.” That would put the Apple TV launch date as early as mid-2012. Take this with a grain of salt. There’s been a lot of chatter about the Apple TV lately, but it’s mostly just rumour right now. It would be surprising if it was ready that soon.
Apple Offers Meager Discounts For Black Friday (ZDNet)
If you’ve been waiting for Apple to slash 50% off that iPad 2 you’ve been lusting over, you’re outta luck. Apple has unveiled it’s Black Friday sale prices and they’re exactly as rumoured; not much. But Apple products being discounted (by an average of 10%) is still viable, even as competitors such as Research In Motion’s PlayBook price is being reduced by 60%. Some readers wouldn’t be surprised if Apple sold more discounted MacBook Air units than PlayBooks today.
Is Apple Stock In For A 2008-Like Crash? (Seeking Alpha)
A 2008-style crash is one of the biggest fears for Apple investors. It pays to take a look at Apple’s technicals in 2008 (from March to September) compared to now and assess the likelihood for that to occur. The two charts are undeniably similar. That said, Apple is a different animal now and the P/E is around 13x versus close to 50x in 2008. And volume is rather low compared to 2008, coupled with the fact that we are approaching Apple’s best trading month, December. If we are going to get a repeat of the pattern, it’s not far off.
Forget A Dividend Or An Acquisition, Apple Should Buyback Shares (Seeking Alpha)
Here’s a new reason for a share buyback: stop the increase in their share count. Over the past couple of years, the diluted share count has grown, and probably at a rate that’s more than you’d expect. Since 2006, share count has increased at a compound annual growth rate of 1.29%. That growth rate equates to an increase of about 12 million shares per year. At current prices, you’re talking about over $4.5 billion in stock to stop dilution.
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