Apple Investor: Gene Munster Told You So: The Mac Business Is On Fire!

The Apple Investor is a daily report from TBI Research. Sign up here to receive it by email.

AAPL Can’t Hold On To Gains As Weak Weekend iPad Numbers Hurt The Stock
Yesterday Apple shares followed the NASDAQ into negative territory and closed at $223.84 as iPad sales were estimated to be less than stellar out of the gate. That said, street estimates continue to rise for the March quarter and the stock trades at 16.9x estimated fiscal-year 2010 EPS and 17.5x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (TTMFCF). Upcoming catalysts include speculation and analysis of iPad sales and trends; the March quarter earnings release (likely around the third week in April); and the release of the next generation iPhone this summer.

Gene Munster Told You So, The Mac Business Is On Fire
(Business Insider)
Following up on his bullish preview last week, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster put out another bullish note on Apple yesterday after analysing NPD data on Macs and iPods. Munster expects the Mac business to beat street consensus estimates, with February sales up 43%.  This followed a similarly strong January increase of 36%. For the first two months of the quarter, Mac sales are up 39% year-over-year. Gene expects iPods to meet expectations as sales in the first two months of 2010 were up 7%, an increase in sales for the first time in over a year. He thinks comparisons ease in the first half of this year, which presents a buying opportunity. He has a $284 price target on the stock.

One Fifth Of iPhone App Developers Started Specifically For The App Store With No Other Distribution Channel
New data from mobile application tracker Flurry reveals that 20% of the companies building iPhone applications started business specifically for Apple’s iPhone platform versus other platforms like Google’s Android. What happened to diversifying your portfolio? analysing the origins of iPhone developers Flurry found the largest amount of developers were Web companies, like Google or eBay. The next largest were independent developers that decided to take a chance on the App Store. Flurry says 35,000 unique companies have released applications since the launch of the App Store. Therefore 7,000 companies have sprung up initially to simply ride Apple’s coattails. The App Store has produced plenty of success stories for small developers, but as the apps market grows, it could become harder for these independent developers to stand out from the crowd. Flurry says established companies with more marketing muscle are entering the store, which could push the smallest developers to the fringe. We hope not, since some of the best apps are from the small guys (Doodle Jump and Flight Control). The iPad should bring a blizzard of more development activity as well.

Googler’s Tirade About The Evils Of The iPhone Part Of “Coordinated Messaging” Plan
(Business Insider)
From the moment Henry Blodget read new Googler Tim Bray’s (a well-known software developer) screed about the evils of Apple’s iPhone and his desire to obliterate it, his first thought was “When is Google going to muzzle him?” Until now, Google has been, if not Apple-like in its control over public communications, at least tight. And this is by far the most aggressive and direct attack on a competitor by a current Googler we have ever read. But for now it’s worth noting that the company actually approved his blog post. So from that can we conclude that trashing the iPhone and Apple is a “coordinated message” Google is trying to send? We still think Google will soon tell Tim to put a sock in it at some point, not only to prevent the plethora of media attention but for regulatory issues as well.

What iPad Pre-Orders Really Mean; The Stock Is Going To Take Off
(Seeking Alpha)
Yesterday reports surfaced that 150,000 iPad’s (or ~$100 million in sales) were sold during the first weekend. Whether that is good or bad is irrelevant. iPads won’t be available in stores for another two weeks. We believe most buyers will wait until they can touch and test an iPad before making their ultimate purchase decision. Jason Schwarz, contributor at Seeking Alpha says that “it looks like the iPad is well on its way to a better launch than the initial iPhone that sold 270,000 units on opening weekend and reached 1,000,000 units sold after 74 days. We all know what a start like that can do to the stock over the long run.” When Apple launched the iPod, the stock was at $9. When it launched the iPhone, the stock was at $122. You do the maths. “The idea that Apple has a legitimate fourth category to add to its iMac, iPhone, and iPod lines is turning into a reality.” Proof will be in the pudding, but if you think that demand for the iPad is going to be strong, you’d better be buying the stock.

The Apple Investor is a daily report from TBI Research. Sign up here to receive it by email.

NOW WATCH: Briefing videos

Business Insider Emails & Alerts

Site highlights each day to your inbox.

Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

Tagged In

apple tbiresearch-us