THE GOOGLE INVESTOR: Why Google + Won't Succeed

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Larry Page

GOOG Off With MarketĀ 
Markets are falling after PMI falls to lowest levels in a year and initial jobless claims miss expectations. Shares of GOOG are off with tech. Investors continue look for Android momentum and monetization on smartphones and tablets; integration of Motorola; regaining ground in China; the resurgence of Google TV; continued growth of YouTube; expansion of social network Google +; and progress in other initiatives (location-based services, mapping, Google Wallet, Google Music, etc.). The stock trades at approximately 10.3x Enterprise Value / EBIT.

Why Google + Won’t Succeed (Social Media Today)
First, social networks success is very binary in the U.S. unless they are complimentary. Second, social networks by nature are useless if only one person uses them. This is the essence of why Google+ won’t succeed; the empty dance floor problem. There is an inherent catch-22 in social networks, aka the dance floor. No one will get on a dance floor unless another person is there and that other person won’t start dancing alone. Thus, like aspects of Game Theory you rely on cooperation. Google should have gone after Google Groups and Google Reade first, asking them and moving them to Google+ Circles. Instead Google shut down those services without taking the targeted approach of already established communities.

Samsung Looking To Break Away From The Android (BGR)
Samsung announced earlier this month that chief executive Choi Gee-sung would shift to a new role focused on strategy and former component business head Kwon Oh-hyun would take over as Samsung’s CEO. During a speech earlier this week, Kwon stated that Samsung will make software and UI design a key focus moving forward, suggesting that the heavy Android customisations seen in the company’s new Galaxy S III smartphone are just the beginning. Samsung is looking to shift focus away from being “an Android vendor” and toward being “a smartphone vendor.” Bad news for Android.

Microsoft Is Copying Google With Surface, Not Apple (Business Insider)
Now that Microsoft is building and selling its own tablet, the Surface, most people think it’s copying Apple. While that’s an easy story line to follow, it actually looks like Microsoft is copying Google and its “Nexus” game plan. At the time, there were concerns that Google was going to be competing with its hardware partners. Wouldn’t this infuriate them? Wouldn’t this hurt Android? Since then Android has become the world’s biggest smartphone operating system, and its partners have had no problems selling smartphones.

Google To Pay Oracle Nothing In Damages? (Engadget)
After watching Judge Alsup strike down its patent and Java API infringement claims, Oracle seems to be cutting its losses, agreeing to accept $0 in damages from Google. Confused? So was the Judge, who reportedly responded to the proposal by asking, “is there a catch I need to be aware of?” No catch, but Oracle isn’t giving up, stating that it’s taking its case to the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. If successful, the appeal could put the two firms back in Alsup’s courtroom, perhaps asking for somewhere between the previously proposed $32.3 million and today’s sum total of zilch.

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