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AAPL Mixed In Down Market
Markets are off to end the week as shares of AAPL seesaw along break-even. Investors remain focused on the revamped iPhone 5 launch next month; iPad proliferation and the rumoured launch of the “mini”; market share growth of the Mac business lines; the introduction of the anticipated Apple TV set and related products; and evolution of platforms such as Siri, iAd and iBooks. Shares of Apple trade at 10.3x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities).
Apple And Samsung Just Revealed Their Exact U.S. Sales Figures (Business Insider)
The patent trial between Apple and Samsung is proving to be a gold mine for anyone who follows these companies closely. Yesterday, Apple and Samsung revealed a detailed breakdown of their U.S. smartphone and tablet sales figures for the first time ever. Apple has sold nearly 86 million iPhones in the U.S. from when the phone first launched in 2007 through the second quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the company has sold 34 million iPads in this country from when that product launched in 2010 through the second quarter of this year. By comparison, Samsung has sold 21 million smartphones in the U.S. and just 1.4 million tablets between June 2010 and June of this year.
Further Evidence Apple Will Have Monster Fall Quarter (All Things D)
Here’s further evidence that Apple is fast ramping up for a big fall product launch. The company’s Taiwanese supply chain posted record sales for the month of July. Preliminary sales data for a group of component suppliers that generate 50% – 60% of their revenue from Apple rose by an estimated 14% month over month in July, according to Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White. That’s almost double the average sales increase of 8.5% that those suppliers have posted over the past seven years, and the strongest July on record for the group.
People Want The Apple HDTV, But Not For $1,500 (Barron’s)
Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster reiterated his Overweight rating on shares of Apple and $910 price target, writing that his survey of 200 U.S. consumers recently revealed that 49% were interested in buying a television set from Apple. From that though, only a fraction, 12%, would be willing to pay the $1,500 he estimates such a device will cost. Munster expects an Apple TV set to arrive in “mid to late 2013.” In terms of impact to the model, if Apple gained 10% (as opposed to 12%) of the U.S. TV market in the first year, it would add ~4% to fiscal 2014 revenue estimates. Would you pay $1,500 for an Apple HDTV?
The iPad “Mini” Is Coming, But It Won’t Be “Mini” (Wedge Partners)
Brian Blair at Wedge Partners has joined the crowd that the iPad “Mini”, what he calls the iPad 3, is coming. He believes the iPad 3 will have an 8.7 inch screen, not a 7 inch screen. Brian likens it to the notebook market which has traditionally offered screens in 11, 13, 15 inch sizes. Apple was more likely to not copy competitors, but to offer something truly unique: in this case, a portable and affordable tablet with a large screen. The recent data about the scalability of iOS 6 to support a larger 4 inch iPhone screen also suggests an easy transition for the OS to an 8.75 inch screen. Logical.
iPad Mini Is “Pointless,” Would Pick Up New iPhone Instead (Cult Of Mac)
According to a survey conducted by CouponCodes4u, 78% of people said that they are likely to leave the iPad mini and pick up the new iPhone instead. 77% of those people said that already owned an iPhone already. When asked why the iPhone would be their preferred choice, 46% of people said the iPad mini was “pointless,” while 39% said that they would simply use the new iPhone more. Interestingly, 41% of respondents said that Apple should follow the current “mini tablet” trend, and that it shouldn’t release an iPad mini at all.
Apple Expected To Be World’s Largest Gaming Platform By Year End (Asymco)
There are currently more than 130 million Game centre accounts (more than PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii). It’s currently the world’s third-largest gaming platform. But Asymco expects Game centre to surpass 200 million users by the end of 2012, putting Apple’s platform on top. No gaming device has ever reached the 200 million mark, according to Asymco. Apple cites the number of games, downloads and payments to developers as evidence of ecosystem health and growth. The economics are different but they always are when a disruption takes root. Is most of your time spent on your iPhone for gaming?
Apple Is Banishing Google From iOS 6: 10 Reasons Why (eWeek)
Apple’s decision to keep YouTube out of iOS 6 comes just a few months after it announced that the native Google Maps app would also be stricken from iOS 6 and be replaced by its own Maps application. Here are the reasons why:
- They are competitors, aren’t they?
- Maps mean big business
- Don’t forget about Lala (streaming video service)
- Apple’s Motorola issues
- Apple’s lawsuits revolve around Android
- Mobile advertising is coming on strong
- Apple could be lining up a Google lawsuit
- Apple wants to leverage revenue opportunities
- Apple’s penchant for control
- iOS 5 nixing would have been a bad idea
The other possibility is Google ended the relationship to take control over YouTube ads.
Apple Retail Stores Cut iPhone Pricing To Match Retail Partners (The Verge)
If you’re looking to buy an iPhone despite all of the signs pointing to the upcoming reveal of the next iteration of the device, Apple’s retail stores are now offering to match the prices at major carriers and retailers. MacRumors first revealed the news which was subsequently confirmed. Stores can take up to $49.01 off of the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4. Depending on the store location, it’s a little confusing what Apple’s policy is on price matching. Your best bet is to call your local store ahead of time and ask.
Who Is Apple Hurting More, Apple Or Google? (Forbes)
Google Maps is gone, now YouTube. Is Apple moving towards removing Google as the default search engine on its devices as well? If so, the financial impact would be material. It is possible that Apple’s move may backfire as it may alienate its users, and Google may benefit as it will now be able to take control of its YouTube app on Apple devices and optimise advertising dollars. These are the kinds of moves that increase the risks in both stocks, but investors seem to understand the risk to a larger degree in Google’s case. Apple stock only has a 55% probability of reaching $1,000 per share.
Apple Stock Has 55% Chance of Hitting $1,000: Whatever That Means (Value Walk)
Apple stock has an above average chance of hitting the $1,000 per share mark, according to Nigam Arora’s ZYX Change Method (opportunities to generate out-sized alpha abound when change is occurring). This is the method he uses in predicting the Apple’s 55% chance of hitting $1,000 per share. Arora is cautious over the continued holding position on Apple stock. He says, “although we continue to recommend holding Apple, we have also been steadily taking partial profits.The reason is that the risk-adjusted potential return on Apple is now lower than many other opportunities available in the market.”
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