THE APPLE INVESTOR: Apple's Stock Is Getting Hammered

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Photo: Associated Press

AAPL Getting Crushed 
The market is up despite the housing miss. Shares of AAPL continue to get battered, down 1.5% (see below), and the rest of tech is also in the red. Apple will report calendar first quarter earnings on Tuesday, April 24 at 5:00pm ET. Additionally, Tim Cook will be the keynote speaker at the D10 Conference on May 29. Investors are looking for the new iPad adoption; iPhone penetration, especially in China and emerging markets; market share growth of the Mac business; the evolution of Apple TV; and platforms such as Siri, iAd, iBooks and Ping. Shares of Apple trade at 11.5x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities).Apple Stock Getting Hit Again (Business Insider)
We talked about this last week, and it’s happening again. Apple shares are badly under-performing the whole market. While the S&P 500 is solidly positive, shares of Apple are down over 1%. Here’s a chart of Apple vs. the S&P 500 ETF. As you can see from the chart, the big red bars at the end, which signify when Apple is falling against the S&P 500, are very rare.

Apple Stock Experiencing A Simple “Collapsing” (Barron’s)
Brian Marshall with ISI Group believes Apple stock may simply be cooling-off after a strong run this year. Specifically he says, “We believe this could be a simple “collapsing” on its own weight given the ytd move (i.e., AAPL up ~45% vs. S&P 500 up ~10%).” White has a Buy rating on Apple shares and a $650 price target.

First Calendar Earnings Expected To Be Driven By iPhone Sales (Apple Insider)
With Apple to report its earnings in just a week and a half, the company is projected to have sold 33 million iPhones and 12 million iPads to kick off calendar 2012, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. His 33 million iPhone projection is a bit higher than the Street’s forecast of 30.5 million handsets, while his forecast of 12 million iPads is slightly below the Street’s 13 million. Munster also sees Apple reporting sales of 4.3 million Macs in the three-month span from January to March, slightly below Wall Street’s expected 4.4 million as consumers wait for updated product lines.

Why Is Tim Cook At Value Gaming Company? (Apple Insider)
Apple’s chief executive Tim Cook reportedly visited Valve Corporation last week, inciting questions about new potential for collaboration between the two companies. The company, created by two former Microsoft employees in the mid 90s, maintains the Steam gaming platform, which distributes over 1,400 games to an audience of over 30 million active users. In early 2010 the company announced it would bring a series of its own video games to the Mac platform for the first time. Would you purchase an Apple game console, possibly in collaboration with Valve?

Apple Not Likely To Be Hurt By E-Book Suit (The New York Times)
If Apple loses the legal case filed against it and book publishers on Wednesday over e-book pricing, will it be deeply wounded in its growing rivalry with Amazon? Not likely. If e-book prices plummet as a result of the lawsuit chances are the financial impact on Apple will be small. Since Apple has never shown much stomach for losing money on the sale of digital goods, it’s doubtful the company would try to match the low prices of its rival.

The iPad Mini rumours Are Swirling Again (Kotaku)
Apple is preparing the rumoured 7.85-inch iPad Mini for a third quarter launch this year, according to NetEase. iPad Mini will cost either $249 or $299 as a way to combat the upcoming wave of Windows 8 tablets. (Windows 8 also launches this fall). The report says Apple is preparing an initial shipment of 6 million units for the launch. Here are some interesting design concepts.

The New iPad Coming To More Countries This Week (Business Journal)
The third generation iPad tablet is expected to be available in South Korea and 11 other countries (Brunei, Croatia, Cyprus, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Panama, St. Maarten, Uruguay and Venezuela) on April 20. Beginning April 27, the device will be available in Colombia, Estonia, India, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, South Africa and Thailand.

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