THE APPLE INVESTOR: A Big Upgrade Cycle Potentially Coming, New iPhone Out June 7

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AAPL Taking A Nose Dive
Shares of AAPL are trading off today, more so than the rest of tech. The stock is down more than $4 to $257 or 17x estimated fiscal-year 2010 EPS and 12x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow. Upcoming catalysts include monthly NPD data (Mac / iPod business), the domestic 3G iPad launch date this Friday; international release of the iPad (May 10); and the launch of the next generation iPhone (likely June 7) as well as the CDMA / Verizon version later this year.

Apple Likely To Launch New iPhone At Developers Conference (Apple)
Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference has an official date, kicking off in San Francisco on June 7. Let the rumour mill being as to what will be announced. Business Insider believes that this will likely be when the company will launch the next generation iPhone. The actual phone will no doubt be something like the one the drunk Apple employee lost. The conference will also likely bring news regarding the state of the iPad ecosystem and about the successor to Apple’s Snow Leopard operating system, Mac OS X 10.7.

Nearly 30% Of First Generation iPhones Are Still In Use (AdMob)
AdMob’s released its March Mobile Metric report which is mostly about the usage of Android (not surprising as Google bought AdMob last year). What is interesting, as reported by Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Fortune, is that 2% of AdMob’s Apple mobile traffic is coming from first generation iPhones purchased three years ago. By his calculations, it suggests that nearly one in three are still in use. That bodes well for an upgrade cycle as Apple will likely release the next generation iPhone in early June.

No, Android Did Not Pass iPhone In Mobile Usage (Take That TechCrunch!) (Business Insider)
Dan Frommer at Business Insider clarifies that Android did NOT just pass the iPhone in Web traffic in the U.S. last month, despite a story on TechCrunch with that assertion as the headline. AdMob measures mobile ad impressions, which is not a proxy for overall traffic. Based on recent comScore data, Frommer estimates that iPhone-based web traffic is still at least 2x Android web traffic in the U.S. iPhone and Android owners use their phones basically the same way, AdMob tells us. Therefore, overall iPhone ad requests should still significantly outnumber Android ad requests.

Apple Is Just One Big Startup (Pontiflex)
Zephrin Lasker, CEO and Co-founder of Pontiflex (a cost-per-lead marketplace)  believes that the key to Apple’s success is that it runs like a giant startup company. So, how can an enormous multinational company run like a new company? He sites 4 reasons; 1) Apple takes risks and absorbs the failures; 2) it does more with less; 3) Steve Jobs acts like the founder; and 4) the company has vision and creates new categories. The only difference, with $40 billion in cash, Apple won’t have to raise money any time soon.

Apple’s Deferred Revenues Experience A Slight Sequential Decline (The Street)
Based on Apple’s 10-Q filing which showed the sequential decline in Apple’s deferred revenues, Chris Bulkey, principal analyst at Technology Research Group, is maintaining his Sell rating. A few surprises; 1) capitalised expenses completely disappeared; 2) the company made no use of deferred assets to lower taxes; and 3) management of valuation allowances showed improvement. Even with those conservative balance sheet and cash flow metrics, Bulkey believes a decline in deferred revenues bucks the recent trend and the company will not be able to sustain the current momentum. We don’t believe it’s an issue. Click to see the Apple financial model.

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