The 'Amazon threat' is still crushing malls

Amazon and its ecommerce brethren just keeps eating into the retail pie.

As we’ve repeatedly noted, ecommerce sales are eating into the market share of traditional brick-and-mortar retailers and according to a Deutsche Bank analysis of data from the US census Bureau that doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

Mike Baker, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank, noted that the share of overall retail sales (excluding the volatile autos and gas) that is going to e-commerce continues to expand.

“As such, e-commerce now accounts for 11.2% of total retail sales, excluding autos and gas, and reported on a non-seasonally adjusted basis,” wrote Baker in a note to clients on Saturday. “This is up from 10.8% in 2015.”

Everyone from Macy’s to Nordstrom to even Target reported year-over-year sales decreases in the last quarter (albeit less of a decline than many analysts expected) so it appears the shift is showing up for individual companies.

Additionally, noted Baker, roughly 40% of the growth in total retail sales this year has come from e-commerce, which means online retail is only going to take a bigger and bigger piece of the pie going forward.

“On a dollar basis, e-commerce was up $24b in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year,” wrote Baker. “That compares to $65b in total retail sales growth. In other words, e-commerce accounted for more than 1/3rd of all retail growth in the first half of last year.”

The big winner in all of this, said Baker, appears to be Amazon which not only is the fastest growing online retailer but accounted for 10% of the total retail sales growth — on and offline — over the first six months of the year.

“This continues to highlight the importance that e-commerce continues to play in any retailer’s strategy, particularly with regard to how a retailer will deal with the Amazon threat,” concluded Baker.

So ecommerce continues to grab market share, Amazon continues to own the ecommerce space, and brick-and-mortar retailers are still posting sales declines. Welcome to the new reality of retail.

Disclosure: Jeff Bezos is an investor in Business Insider through hispersonal investment company Bezos Expeditions.

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