Photo: Flickr/Steven Depolo
This is a cool article from The Cleveland Fed on the power lf leading indicators to actually, you know, lead the overall economic cycle.The gist, according to economist Pedro Amaral, is that most of the leading indicators don’t actually turn much in advance of a GDP downturn, and don’t have a ton of value.
But that’s not to say there’s not any way to get ahead.
The only variables that seem to have any individual predictive power beyond that already embedded in lagged GDP changes are the S&P500, the ISM’s new manufacturing orders, and private housing building permits.
Good to know. For most part, these are all looking goods.