The Next 10 Big Blockbuster Drugs

Polio Vaccination

Photo: AP/Jean-Marc Bouju

Shares of pharmaceutical companies move heavily as drugs progress through the testing pipeline. An approval can mean a long runway of sales while failure means wasted research and development spend.But these big trials often come as a surprise to most investors who are not on the pulse of what any individual company has in the pipeline.

Morgan Stanley’s┬áDavid Risinger put together a note to clients on the 10 next big trials that are expected to close within the next 12 months and what they will mean to the company’s producing them.

Eliquis (Blood Thinner)

Manufacturer:
Bristol-Myers Squibb

Global Sales Potential:
$6 billion in 2020

Therapy:
Eliquis is an oral blood thinner that is the only treatment to show better efficacy rates and less major bleeding. Eliquis also showed an 11 per cent reduction in mortality rates.

Timing:
BMS filing additional data on Eliquis in September 2012, with possible action by the FDA in December.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Dulaglutide (Diabetes)

Manufacturer:
Eli Lilly

Global Sales Potential:
$950 million in 2020

Therapy:
Dulaglutide is a new type two diabetes treatment that is meant to both regulate blood sugars and reduce high blood pressure. The drug could potentially be administered once a week with a small needle.

Timing:
Phase III trial results in second half 2012.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Solanezumab (Alzheimers)

Manufacturer:
Eli Lilly

Global Sales Potential:
$80 million in 2020

Therapy:
Solanezumab is a antibody being investigate by Eli Lilly to act as a neuroprotector in patients with mild Alzheimers. The drug reduces amyloid plaque formation by lowering circulating A-beta peptides, an amino acid associated with Alzheimers.

Timing:
Phase III data in October 2012 (but approval is not expected until at least 2018).

Source: Morgan Stanley

Tofacitinib (Rheumatoid Arthritis)

Manufacturer:
Pfizer

Global Sales Potential:
$2 billion in 2020

Therapy:
Tofacitnib is expected to be approved in patients who have not responded to anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) drugs for Rheumatoid Arthritis. TNF causes inflammation in patients.

Timing:
Data potentially in November 2012 followed by a completed trial in April 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Tredaptive (Cholesterol)

Manufacturer:
Merck

Global Sales Potential:
$400 million in 2020

Therapy:
Tredaptive works to lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels in patients while preventing a common side effect: flushing. LDL is commonly referred to as the 'bad cholesterol.'

Timing:
Expected data in late 2012 or early 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Edoxaban (Anticoagulant)

Manufacturer:
Daiichi

Global Sales Potential:
N/A

Therapy:
Edoxaban is an anticoagulant drug which acts as a direct factor Xa (an enzyme that causes blood clots) inhibitor. Although its next trial results are expected in March 2013, early trials showed that once a day dosing had less major bleeding -- a sales point.

Timing:
Trial results in Early 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Vytorin (Cholesterol)

Manufacturer:
Merck

Global Sales Potential:
$4 billion annually between 2013 and 2016

Therapy:
Vytorin works to raise high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol while lowering LDL in patients. HDL is commonly referred to as the 'good cholesterol.' Merck is running new trials of the drug in combination with Zetia to see if the prescription has better results than competitors.

Timing:
Trial outcomes in March 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Odanacatib (Osteoporosis)

Manufacturer:
Merck

Global Sales Potential:
$1.2 billion in 2020

Therapy:
Odanacatib is meant to lower fracture rates in patients with osteoporosis. Odanacatib is being sold as a more convenient treatment than existing treatments, which prevent patients from sitting up straight for 30 minutes after dosing.

Timing:
Fracture trial data in second quarter 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Edivoxetine (Depression)

Manufacturer:
Eli Lilly

Global Sales Potential:
$550 million in 2020

Therapy:
Edivoxetine is a treatment for patients with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors partial responders, a condition that causes depression. Lilly believes doctors would rather move to Edivoxetine in patients with partial responses instead of switching patients.

Timing:
Four of the company's six trials will be completed in the first half of 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Prevnar (Pneumococcal Vaccine)

Manufacturer:
Pfizer

Global Sales Potential:
$5.7 billion in 2020

Therapy:
Prevnar is a vaccine that could be used to prevent pneumonia.

Timing:
Study results in August 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

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