The Most Common Mistake In A Lot Of The Fiscal Cliff Analysis

John Boehner

[credit provider=”AP”]

Quick point on what happens next in the Fiscal Cliff situation, now that Boehner’s Plan B vote has failed.We’re seeing this point made a lot.

From the FT:

It now casts doubt on Mr Boehner’s ability to muster support for any deal he might cut with Mr Obama, leading to pessimism about the prospects for any agreement ahead of the year-end deadline.

Part of the thinking is: Well if the GOP won’t even pass a bill that only lets taxes rise on millionaires, then how will they pass something that goes a lot further, that the President would sign!

Two things:

— Boehner still had the majority of his caucus, so some of the talk about how this is a complete collapse of Boehner’s leadership might be a bit overwrought.

— The final deal was always going to see Boehner lose 70 or more conservatives, requiring him to get a lot of Democratic house members. Nothing changes on that front. If there’s a middle ground, Pelosi will deliver a lot of votes, and Boehner will deliver a lot of votes, and the wings of both parties will be furious. That dynamic hasn’t been altered.