Just a quick point about the difficulty of making predictions.With the revolution in Tunisia threatening to spill over into Egypt (you saw the CDS blowout yesterday, right?) the winds of change are threatening to have a consequential impact around the globe.
What’s interesting is that nobody saw this coming, at least it wasn’t in any of the BIG RISKS FOR 2011 lists that we saw (surely some more focused observers have been on this story for longer).
The bottom line: this stuff is almost always impossible and backward looking.
It’s cliche now — now that everyone listens to Taleb — but it’s hard to predict unpredictable risks.