- Tesla had threatened $US400 a share earlier in 2017, but recently the stock has traded closer to $US300.
- The Semi Truck and new Roadster unveiling haven’t restored investor enthusiasm.
- Tesla’s major upcoming news will be full-year and Q4 earnings, as well as total vehicle deliveries for 2017.
Wall Street wasn’t impressed by the show. After heading toward $US400 per share earlier this year, Tesla’s stock price has slipped back considerably. In the past month, it’s down almost 10%, and as of late it has settled into a narrow trading range between $US300 and $US320.
What we’re seeing here is a waiting game. Tesla is now out of major news events for the remainder of 2017, so investors will be eyeing two future reports: total deliveries for the year, which should set a record at around 100,000 vehicles; and fourth-quarter and full-year earnings, showing Tesla losing an epic amount of money.
Good news and bad news, in other words. But there’s a wildcard:the Model 3. Tesla was supposed to build 20,000 a month by December. That pace has been pushed into 2018. And don’t forget that Tesla has something like 500,000 pre-orders for the car, whose base price is $US35,000. Those orders need to be fulfilled if Tesla wants to collect the revenue.
Trading on the Model 3
For the rest of 2017 and into early 2018, Tesla’s stock will trade on Model 3 developments. Investors are getting a break now during this levelling-off period, but obviously weak Model 3 deliveries for the fourth quarter and another big loss could send shares spiraling down below $US300.
They would have to fall pretty far to vindicate some of the more bullish sentiment, however. That would require a plunge below $US200.
For what it’s worth, Tesla bull Adam Jonas, the lead auto analyst at Morgan Stanley, says the opposite. In a research note published Tuesday, he reiterate his $US379 price target and wrote that “we anticipate Tesla’s stock price may reach highs in the range of $US400 or more over the next few months before facing some more serious headwinds later in the year that could take the stock significantly below current levels.”
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