An analyst who thinks Tesla is worth $0 sees even more bad news in August’s delivery numbers

A Tesla store. Kim Kyung Hoon/Reuters
  • One of Tesla’s most bearish analysts is doubling down on his $US0 valuation in the wake of InsideEVs’ latest delivery estimates for the company.
  • “That story is clearly over,” Ed McCabe of TLF Capital said of those who say Tesla is a growth company to justify losses and slowing growth.
  • Shares of Tesla have fallen 38% since their most recent high in December. Follow the stock here.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Tesla’s estimated deliveries for August have the company’s most bearish of Wall Street analysts on the edge of their seats as the end of the quarter approaches.

For Ed McCabe of TLF Capital, InsideEVs’ estimates of August’s numbers, showing another decline in Model 3 sales, proved that “organic demand is extremely weak,” he said in a report Thursday.

“While there is no reasonable justification for a structurally unprofitable and horribly managed company to enjoy a $US40 billion market cap, proponents of the stock tout its growth,” he said. “That story is clearly over.”

Tesla total monthly deliveries
Tesla’s monthly deliveries for 2018 and 2019. Ed McCabe

In its most recent quarterly update, Tesla reaffirmed guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 deliveries worldwide for the full year. Halfway through the year, total sales were at roughly 158,000, or about half of the low end of that range.

However, McCabe said that even if Tesla hits these goals, it likely wouldn’t help the balance sheet.

Tesla stock price Markets Insider
Shares of Tesla have fallen 38% since their most recent high in December. Markets Insider

“To reach the low-end of guidance Tesla needs to average 103K deliveries in the remaining two quarters of the year,” he said. “To reach the high-end it needs to average 123K. Both would exceed Tesla’s second quarter record. Neither will happen. It’s also irrelevant. The company is structurally unprofitable. The more cars Tesla sells the more money it loses.”

Now that there’s more competition coming, like Porsche’s new electric Taycan Turbo, things could get even worse, McCabe said.

“Remember that the staggering losses and cash burn have occurred while Tesla has had the electric vehicle market essentially to itself and Musk has promised imminent and sustainable profits and cash flow generation multiple times,” he said.

“Back-to-back quarters of negative revenue growth, increasing losses, and cash burn will make plain to even the most ardent believers that Tesla is not a viable business.”

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said McCabe’s employer was Highbridge Capital Management. It is TLF Capital.