The 10 Countries That Will Dominate World Trade In 2050

port of singapore

Photo: PSA Singapore

Despite a 20% decline during the financial crisis, world trade is expected to increase from 61% of global GDP in 2010, to 86% in 2050, according to a new report by Citigroup.Trade is defined as the combined value of both imports and exports in a country, including both goods and services.

More significantly, trade is set to transform with most growth coming from emerging markets. China will be the world’s biggest economy by trade as early as 2015, and developing Asia will become the world’s largest regional trade corridor in the same period.

These projections however hinge on GDP growth, improved productivity, rising incomes and the fewer protectionist measures.

Note: According to the report, emerging markets include Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Israel and Slovenia as well.

#10 Hong Kong

Trade in 2050: $8.5 trillion

per cent of world trade: 2.3%

Hong Kong which doesn't feature in the top 10 in 2010 but is expected to climb to the eighth spot in 2030 with $4.1 trillion in trade, before slipping to tenth place in 2050.

Source: Citigroup

#9 Singapore

Trade in 2050: $8.65 trillion

per cent of world trade: 2.3%

Singapore's trade is set to rise from $1.6 trillion in 2015, to $4.1 trillion in 2030 and account fo 2.8% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#8 Japan

Trade in 2050: $8.76 trillion

per cent of world trade: 2.4%

Japan which at $1.78 trillion accounted for 4.8% of world trade in 2010 is expected to drop to start slipping in 2030 when it will account for only 3.3% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#7 Thailand

Trade in 2050: $9.06 trillion

per cent of world trade: 2.4%

Thailand will make its first appearance on the top 10 list in 2050, and is expected to benefit from its free trade agreements with Japan, China, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Asean countries

Source: Citigroup

#6 Indonesia

Trade in 2050: $10.58 trillion

per cent of world trade: 2.9%

Indonesia also makes the list for the first time in 2050, driven by trade with China, Japan and the European Union.

Source: Citigroup

#5 Germany

Trade in 2050: $11.17 trillion

per cent of world trade: 3%

At $2.86 trillion Germany accounts for 7.6% of world trade in 2010. While trade will rise to $6.37 trillion in 2030 it will account for just 4.3% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#4 Korea

Trade in 2050: $11.5 trillion

per cent of world trade: 3.1%

At $1.05 trillion Korea accounted for 2.8% of world trade in 2010, in 2030, this figure is set to rise to $5.5 trillion and account for 3.7% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

#3 U.S.

Trade in 2050: $21.97 trillion

per cent of world trade: 5.9%

The U.S. which is the current global leader in trade, accounting for a massive 10.7% of world trade, is set to account for only 7.6% of world trade in 2030. The U.S. will lose ground to India and China.

Source: Citigroup

#2 India

Trade in 2050: $31.07 trillion

per cent of world trade: 8.4%

India which doesn't make the top 10 countries by trade in 2010 is set to account for 2.7% of world trade in 2015, and 5.3% in 2030.

Source: Citigroup

#1 China

Trade in 2050: $63 trillion

per cent of world trade: 17%

China which currently accounts for 9.5% of world trade at $3.6 trillion, will overtake the U.S. in 2015. In 2030, at $24.9 trillion China will account for 16.7% of world trade.

Source: Citigroup

Now here are 10 American states that earn billions from exports to China...

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