We know there are a ton of headlines, but the actual evidence that there’s a big euro crisis in progress is pretty minimal.
The euro hasn’t fallen much against the yen, indicating that it’s “fall” is a function of dollar strength.
Safe-haven bets haven’t surged… gold has been garbage, and there hasn’t been that much buying in US Treasuries.
And the TED Spread (below), which surged this summer, now isn’t going anywhere, suggesting that contagion fears are pretty minimal.
Yes, Irish spreads are widening hard, but mostly it looks like there’s an Ireland crisis, not a Europe one.
The bottom line: There are issues here, but don’t take your eye off the ball (the fall in China and the US economic data).
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