Zynga is taking heat for allowing scammy offers inside its social games, and people are starting to wonder if it this will impact Facebook, where Zynga advertises.
The answer is not really.
An industry source tells us Zynga’s ad spending only accounts for a tiny fraction of [Facebook’s] direct sales or online sales channel revenues.
Specifically, Zynga is said to spend, at most, $50 million a year on Facebook ads. Assuming Facebook’s revenues reach $550 million this year, that means Zynga’s spend could be about 9% of the company’s total.
Importantly, however, even if Facebook eliminated 100% of its “offers” business tomorrow, its own spending on Facebook wouldn’t go to zero.
“Offers” account for only a third of Facebook’s revenue. It is unlikely that all of this offers revenue qualifies as “scammy.” And even if Facebook cut all of it, and cut its ad spending by a third to match, Facebook would only lose about $15 million of run-rate revenue.
So does Facebook have some exposure to a change in policy at Zynga? Sure. But not much.