The 10 Teams That Have A Realistic Shot To Win The NCAA Tournament

Before the NCAA tournament starts, there are 68 teams with dreams of cutting down the nets and lifting a trophy.

But even though there will be upsets, there are really just ten teams that have a realistic shot at winning it all.

Using RPI ratings, KenPom.com ratings, Nate Silver’s win probabilities, and Sports-Reference.com’s Simple Rating System (SRS) we narrowed the field down to the teams with the best chances to be champions.

1. Louisville Cardinals

Regular season record: 29-5

AP ranking: 5

RPI ranking: 19 (.6125)

KenPom.com ranking: 2 (.9515)

SRS ranking: 1 (25.28)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 15%

2. Florida Gators

Regular season record: 32-2

AP ranking: 1

RPI ranking: 1 (.6701)

KenPom.com ranking: 3 (.9476)

SRS ranking: 4 (20.78)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 14%

3. Arizona Wildcats

Regular season record: 30-4

AP ranking: 4

RPI ranking: 2 (.6664)

KenPom.com ranking: 1 (.9540)

SRS ranking: 2 (24.14)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 13%

4. Kansas Jayhawks

Regular season record: 24-9

AP ranking: 10

RPI ranking: 3 (.6560)

KenPom.com ranking: 9 (.9108)

SRS ranking: 3 (21.32)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 6%

5. Virginia Cavaliers

Regular season record: 28-6

AP ranking: 3

RPI ranking: 9 (.6333)

KenPom.com ranking: 4 (.9419)

SRS ranking: 16 (18.49)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 6%

6. Michigan State Spartans

Regular season record: 26-8

AP ranking: 11

RPI ranking: 18 (.6156)

KenPom.com ranking: 10 (.9038)

SRS ranking: 7 (20.00)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 6%

7. Duke Blue Devils

Regular season record: 26-8

AP ranking: 8

RPI ranking: 7 (.6346)

KenPom.com ranking: 7 (.9126)

SRS ranking: 5 (20.30)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 5%

8. Wichita State Shockers

Regular season record: 34-0

AP ranking: 2

RPI ranking: 4 (.6437)

KenPom.com ranking: 5 (.9399)

SRS ranking: 19 (16.56)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 5%

9. Villanova Wildcats

Regular season record: 28-4

AP ranking: 6

RPI ranking: 5 (.6406)

KenPom.com ranking: 6 (.9196)

SRS ranking: 6 (20.10)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 4%

10. Creighton Bluejays

Regular season record: 26-7

AP ranking: 16

RPI ranking: 10 (.6280)

KenPom.com ranking: 8 (.9121)

SRS ranking: 8 (19.84)

FiveThirtyEight.com win probability: 3%

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