In an ai5000 article next to a studio shot with a stuffed black swan, Nassim Taleb makes it clear he has far more confidence in the investment acumen of George Soros than Warren Buffett.
“I don’t want to spend too much time on Buffett. George Soros has 2 million times more statistical evidence that his results are not chance than Buffett does. Soros is vastly more robust. I am not saying Buffett doesn’t have skill—I’m just saying we don’t have enough evidence to say Buffett isn’t doing it by chance.”
We aren’t so much surprised that someone might consider the role of chance in Warren Buffett’s investment performance, but rather are surprised that George Soros’s track record might be more defensible. We’d be interested to see the data Mr. Taleb is referring to.