Is This Taiwanese Export Chart The Asia Green Shoot That Everyone's Been Waiting For?

Is this a nascent sign of re-acceleration in Asia/China?

Morgan Stanley’s Sharon Lam observes a tickup in Taiwanese exports:

Taiwan’s exports increased quite significantly, by 10.4% YoY, in September (vs. the decline of 4.2% YoY in August). It was much higher than our forecast of +1.6% and consensus forecast of +1.0%. It was the first YoY rise in seven months. On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis, exports increased 5.0% mum in September, after a gain of 1.5% mum in August. Because of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in China/Hong Kong at the end of September to the first week of October, we caution that there could be frontloaded shipments in September.


Photo: Morgan Stanley

So it’s not unequivocally bullish due to some holiday effects. Still, the first acceleration in 7 months. Maybe something’s getting started.

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