Huge Plunge In Taiwanese Exports Shocks Analysts, And Spells Trouble For The Entire Region

Some potentially ominous news out of Taiwan last night.

Waverly Advisors has the call:

Taiwanese export orders for February, released last night, registered a sequential decline in growth to 5.35% Y/Y versus 13.47% in January and consensus forecasts ranging from Just under 13% to 13.7%. This is the softest growth rate for orders registered since October 2009 (see chart above) with currency appreciation, holiday interruptions and weak orders from Japan bearing partial responsibility. As we noted last month however, the continuing moderation of consumer electronics as a portion of the mix, coupled with a significantly moderating percentage orders accounted for by China and Hong Kong (the total rate of growth in orders from China/HK declined to 2.7% for the month from 7.22% in January) suggests that wholesale buyers on the mainland are anticipating softening retail demand in the near-term as inflationary concerns and corresponding cooling measures are factored.


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