The Asia Report is supported by Cathay PacificAfter plunging 5.35% year-over-year growth in February, Taiwan’s export orders surged in March, up 13.4%. This implies that either the impact of Japan is not being felt yet, or Japanese export demand just doesn’t matter that much to Taiwan.
According to Societe Generale analyst Joseph Lau, it’s a little bit of both.
March did see some decline in Japan orders on a yoy basis, down 6% yoy in the month compared to a 2.6% yoy fall in the January-February period, but this was more of the ongoing normalization trend we have seen since last year. Japanese orders growth has been weakening since Q3 2010 and the statistical base also worked against March. Looking at the seasonally adjusted series, Japan orders were actually higher mum by 2.3%. So it seems that Japan’s earthquake has yet to register yet on Taiwan’s trade figures.
More important in the long-run may be the decline in Chinese demand growth, to 4.8% year-over-year growth in Q1 from 13.4% year-over-year growth in Q4 2010, according to Lau.
Photo: Societe Generale