BREXIT POLL: One of the few groups that predicted the general election outcome has Leave in the lead

  • SurveyMonkey online poll: Remain 48 / Leave 49
  • Results show a massive generational divide
  • SurveyMonkey correctly predicted the outcome of the 2015 General Election

A new online poll published by research company SurveyMonkey indicates a narrow one-point lead for the Leave campaign ahead of Thursday’s EU referendum (48/49%).

It is the second SurveyMonkey opinion poll released in the space of a week to depict the referendum as a neck-and-neck contest. Last week, the firm found that the public was split exactly evenly (48/48%).

Both campaigns will likely pay extra attention to this poll as SurveyMonkey was one of the few groups to correctly predict the outcome of the 2015 General Election when so many reputable pollsters failed. 

This is what SurveyMonkey’s latest result means for Business Insider’s live chart. Remain has clawed its way back having trailed in the majority of polls published last week.

The survey confirmed a trend that was already clear and that is there is a distinct divide between how young people and the elderly intend to vote on Thursday.

A whopping 71% of respondents aged between 18 and 24 told SurveyMonkey that they will vote for Britain to stay in the 28-nation bloc, compared to just 38% of 65+ who said the same.

This comes as no surprise. Research published on Monday by research group Kantar found that young people overwhelmingly feel that a Brexit would leave them financially worse off.

SurveyMonkey’s latest survey follows a handful of new polls that have been more encouraging for the Remain campaign.

An ORB poll for The Telegraph newspaper indicated a seven-point lead (53/45%) for the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU while a NatCan survey gave Remain a six-point lead (53/47%).

Despite this, however, SurveyMonkey’s research confirms that a Brexit remains a major possibility. David Cameron and other remain campaigners have every reason to feel nervous ahead of Thursday’s vote. 

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