BREXIT POLL: One of the only groups to successfully predict the general election outcome says Remain is 'decisively' in the lead

  • SurveyMonkey poll shows swing to Remain vote on the day before the referendum.
  • Says British voters 50% want to Remain; 47% want to Leave.
  • But EU referendum is still too close to call.

Voters have moved “decisively — albeit narrowly” towards a Remain vote in the EU referendum on June 23, according to an updated poll released this morning by SurveyMonkey.

Just 24 hours ago had Leave at 49% and Remain at 48% in another SurveyMonkey poll. In the grand scheme of things that might look like quite a small swing for Remain, but a day before the polls actually open, it is a massive move.

This SurveyMonkey news is important because it was one of the few polling companies to correctly predict the outcome of the 2015 General Election, which saw David Cameron’s Conservative Party win a majority.

Here is a look at Business Insider’s updated polling chart:

“Previous SurveyMonkey polls showed a tied or virtually even contest,” said Jon Cohen, SurveyMonkey’s Chief Research Officer. “The new, evident advantage for remain belies the still near-even split, and is certainly close enough to give all Brexit watchers — and pollsters — cause for concern.”

Cohen noted another shift in the referendum — which demographics are planning on voting. He points out that that the referendum is now attracting a broader set of people beyond just those who seem focused on it. That, Cohen notes, is good for Remain. “The referendum is now pulling in voters who had previously managed to tune out the fierce rhetoric of the campaign,” he said. “Remain is benefiting from a broader swath of voters now primed to vote.”

Other significant findings include:

  • Male voters are split down the middle, with 48% Remain; 49% Leave. Before now the gap was 10% in Leave’s favour.
  • Of voters who say they are set on their decision, Remain is up 5%
  • Remain and Leave voters who say the referendum is now the UK’s number one issue are even. A previous survey showed Leave was 10 points ahead in this regard.

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