Surprise! NFL Draft Experts Are Not Very Good At Mock Drafting

Andrew Luck, Colts

Photo: ESPN

Leading up to the NFL Draft, a lot of airtime and print space is devoted to mock drafts and predicting who will land where. And the two biggest names in mock drafts are Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.If we ignore the top two picks (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III) which everybody knew about prior to the draft, neither expert did very well.

Of the 30 picks after Luck and RG3, both McShay and Kiper correctly matched five (16.7%) of the first round picks with the team that eventually drafted them. The both also had one player drafted in the correct spot, but with the wrong team.

McShay did better at the top of the draft, correctly picking the teams for the top four picks, while Kiper was better in the top 10, getting six of the 10 correct. After the top 10, both experts struggled, with McShay correctly matching two players and Kiper getting just one correct.

Overall, according to, McShay performed slightly better than Kiper, missing by an average of 7.8 spots with his picks, while Kiper missed by an average of 8.9 spots.

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