Roy Morgan has been running an exit poll all day, updating hourly, which like the other exit polls is pointing to a crushing win for Tony Abbott’s Coalition over Kevin Rudd and Labor.
It notes that if Palmer United Party supporters vote according to the how-to-vote cards they would add 1.5% to the two-party-preferred outcome. In Queensland, they are taking 9% of the vote, according to the exit poll.
The 5pm sample had almost 5000 respondents and carries has had the following note:
PALMER UNITED PARTY IS POLLING 9% IN QUEENSLAND.
PALMER’S PREFERENCES ARE BEING ALLOCATED 65% L-NP & 35% ALP
IF PALMER VOTERS VOTE THE CARD THE 2PP WILL BE UP TO 1.5% MORE TO THE L-NP (53.5%) CF. ALP (46.5%).
The 2PP result in the Morgan exit poll has the Coalition leading the ALP by 52-48. But adding in the Palmer transfers would put the Morgan poll in line with the Newspoll and Galaxy exit polls both have have the Coalition at 54-46. (The Galaxy poll for the Nine Network had an extra .5% going to the Coalition away from Labor.)
So if there are some tight seats in Queensland, the transfers from supporters of Palmer’s new party could play a critical part in determining the final arithmetic in the new parliament.
The poll’s here.
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.