The Super Bowl is tied 14-14 at halftime and the Seattle Seahawks have the advantage, with a 54.7% chance to win according to simulations run by PredictonMachine.com.
At PredictionMachine.com, they simulate the remainder of the Super Bowl 50,000 times after every play. This gives us a good look at which plays have had the biggest impact on who will win the game.
Here are the most important plays so far.
The first big play came toward the end of the first quarter with the Patriots seemingly driving to the first score when Tom Brady threw an awful interception into the end zone. This increased the Seahawks’ chances of winning from 49.2% to 58.4%.
But the Patriots held and later converted on their march towards the end zone, taking a 7-0 lead and increasing their win probability from 52.0% to 64.7%, the biggest play of the first half.
However, prior to that touchdown, the Patriots converted a first down on third-and-9 which was nearly as important, increasing their win probability from 45.3% to 54.0%.
After a slow start by the Seahawks offence, they finally got moving with this 44-yard pass to Chris Matthews that bumped their chances of winning from 40.7% to 50.8%.
That led to the Seahawks tying the game with a Marshawn Lynch touchdown run up the middle. 47.2% to 57.1%.
But despite the early interception, Brady continued to pick the Seahawks defence apart and eventually found Rob Gronkowski for a 22-yard touchdown.
This raised the Pats’ win chances from 53.3% to 65.6% with less than a minute left in the half.
The Seahawks charged right back and after a 23-yard pass to the 20-yard line, a facemask penalty took them to the 10-yard line with just six seconds left.
Instead of a field goal, the Seahawks now had a shot to score a touchdown and their chances of winning jumped from 38.2% to 50.3%.
Sure enough, the Seahawks scored a touchdown, tied the score, and the the Seahawks now have the bigger chance to win heading into the second half.
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