The CEO of a real-estate brokerage says the weekend that determines the direction of the housing market every year is right around the corner

Spencer Platt/GettyThe newly built luxury residential tower at 56 Leonard Street.

Super Bowl Sunday is a long-awaited moment for sports fans across the US – but it’s also an indicator of how the year’s housing market will perform.

That’s according to Glenn Kelman, CEO of the online real-estate brokerage Redfin, based in Seattle.

NPR’s Stacey Vanek Smith spoke to Kelman last month on a segment of the podcast “The Indicator From Planet Money.” When Smith asked him if he expected 2018 to end with a whimper or a bang, Kelman gave an answer that was simple but definite: a whimper.

Redfin CEO Glenn KelmanRedfinRedfin CEO Glenn Kelman.

While the downward trend could smooth out in 2019, “a deeper drought in housing is dark news for just about everybody, not just the banks,” Business Insider’s Alex Morell reported. “Significant housing declines have foreshadowed nine of the 11 post-World War II recessions in the US, according to another note by UBS from December examining the housing slowdown.”

And there’s one weekend that Kelman says will indicate the direction of the market: the weekend of the Super Bowl, which is this Sunday.

Read more: Redfin’s CEO explains why competitors should fear him

“That weekend is the weekend where the housing market either goes crazy or it takes a nap,” Kelman said on NPR, later referring to the weekend as a sort of “Groundhog Day for the housing market.”

“What I’ll be watching that weekend is just how many people are touring houses and, on Sunday night, how many of them decide to make an offer,” Kelman continued.

2019 has already seen several notable real-estate transactions. Most recently, the billionaire hedge-fund manager Ken Griffin shattered the US real-estate record with the purchase of a $US238 million New York penthouse, topping the $US137 million Hamptons mansion that the hedge-fund manager Barry Rosenstein purchased in 2014.

That news, however, followed a decline in home sales in 2018 that reached every region of the US, including the Hamptons.

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