- The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off on Sunday in Super Bowl LV.
- The Super Bowl the biggest gambling day on the sporting calendar.
- Below we take a look at our 28 favourite prop bets for Super Bowl LV.
- Visit Insider’s homepage for more stories.
After months of enthralling football action and a postseason filled with incredible games, we’ve finally made it to the Super Bowl.
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and call themselves champions.
Not only should Sunday bring us a great game, but it’s also the greatest gambling day of the year, thanks to the number of prop bets available.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released over 400 prop bets for the Super Bowl, ranging from the expected to the absurd. Below we go through our 28 favourite wagers for the Super Bowl to send you home a winner.
What will the result of the coin toss be?
The pick: Tails ($US51 to win $US50)
The logic: Never fails.
Will either team score in the first 6:30 minutes of the game?
The pick: Yes, there will be a score in the first 6:30 minutes of the game ($US155 to win $US100)
The logic: Both the Chiefs and Buccaneers score fast and score often. Since both of the starting quarterbacks have been here before, don’t expect either offence to have pregame jitters.
If the team that receives the opening kickoff decides to lean on the run game, this could get scary. However, it feels like both of these teams are more than capable of putting points on the board with their first drive.
Which team will commit the first penalty of Super Bowl LV?
The pick: Buccaneers commit first penalty ($US50 to win $US50)
The logic: Penalties happen when you get beat, and there’s no greater mismatch in this game than Tyreek Hill vs. the Buccaneers secondary. The one concern I have here is an early holding call against the Chiefs offensive line, which will be slotting in some new pieces for the Super Bowl due to injury, but Mahomes gets the ball out fast enough that that shouldn’t be a problem.
Will Patrick Mahomes complete his first pass?
The pick: Yes, Patrick Mahomes will complete his first pass ($US100 to win $US50)
The logic: Mahomes has completed his first pass of every game this year since a Week 5 matchup against the Raiders. Even in that game, Mahomes technically did complete his first pass attempt, but a holding penalty nullified the play. Still, that’s 12 straight games that Mahomes has cashed this bet. Laying -200 odds on a bet isn’t easy, but it feels like quite a good value in this situation.
Over/Under 4.5 yards on Tyreek Hill’s first rushing attempt
The pick: Over 4.5 yards on Tyreek Hill’s first rushing attempt ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: Hill is usually good for one rushing attempt per game that catches the opposing defence sleeping. At some point, the Tampa Bay defence will flinch, and Hill should be ready to break for a big gain.
Over/Under 9.5 yards on Scotty Miller’s first reception
The pick: Over 9.5 yards on Scotty Miller’s first reception ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: I like this bet for Miller because he is usually used in long-yardage situations. If Miller is on the field, chances are the Buccaneers need a chunk play, and he’s more than capable of picking it up.
Over/Under 46.5 yards on the longest touchdown of the game
The pick: Over 46.5 yards on the longest touchdown of the game ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: Both of these teams are capable of big plays, and we want to root for an exciting game. This bet is a fun one because we can cash on Mike Evans or Tyreek Hill breaking free from coverage, a thundering Leonard Fournette score from midfield, or even a defensive or special teams touchdown.
Over/Under 27.5 yards on the shortest field goal of the game
The pick: Over 27.5 yards on the shortest field goal of the game ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: Both of these teams benefitted from their opposition settling for short, cowardly field goals in their respective conference championship games. Bruce Arians and Andy Reid will not make the same mistake. To win the Super Bowl, you need touchdowns. Both coaches have players they trust to get in the end zone. Barring a fourth-and-goal from the 10-yard line, I trust these teams to be aggressive and recognise that putting six points on the board is better than three.
Over/Under 6.5 touchdowns scored by both teams
The pick: Over 6.5 touchdowns by both teams ($US50 to win $US55)
The logic: Both the AFC and NFC championship games featured seven total touchdowns. It’s a lot of scoring, but since we’ve already established that both coaches will be going for touchdowns over field goals, it feels like things tilt that way. If you’re looking for a way to bet the total at plus-odds, this is an opportunity.
Over/Under 97.5 yards on all touchdowns in the game
The pick: Over 97.5 yards on all touchdowns in the game ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: This is another fun way to bet on big plays without necessarily needing a lot of scoring. This bet could cash even with just two touchdowns scored all game, as long as both came on big plays.
In the NFC championship game, the seven touchdowns scored totaled 140 yards, including 85 yards on the game’s first three scores. Meanwhile, the AFC championship also featured seven touchdowns but totaled just 25 yards of scoring as both teams held their touchdowns to goal-to-go situations.
It’s a scary proposition, but that’s gambling.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over/under 29.5 rushing yards
The pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 29.5 rushing yards ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: Edwards-Helaire returned from injury to play in the AFC championship game but earned just seven yards on six carries to finish out what was a mostly unproductive day. Still, Edwards-Helaire is a solid weapon out of the backfield, and with two more weeks to get healthy, he should put up a stronger showing in the Super Bowl as long as he gets the carries. Watch the injury report throughout the week, but I like Edwards-Helaire to be a potential game-breaker on Sunday.
Tyreek Hill over/under 6.5 receptions
The pick: Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions ($US50 to win $US50)
The logic: In the Chiefs’ regular-season matchup against the Buccaneers, Tyreek Hill was a monster, going off for 13 receptions, 269 yards, and three touchdowns. While Hill might not be able to repeat those mind-blowing numbers, he should be in for another big day this Sunday. Hill has brought in more than seven receptions in three straight playoff games for the Chiefs, dating back to last year’s Super Bowl. Even if the Buccaneers defence commits to double-covering him, Hill is tough to stop.
Leonard Fournette over/under 46.5 rushing yards
The pick: Leonard Fournette over 46.5 rushing yards ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: The Buccaneers have leaned on Fournette in the postseason thus far, with rushing performances of 55, 63, and 93 yards in Tampa Bay’s three wins en route to the Super Bowl. He’s a big back that only needs to break for one big run to make this number an easy hit.
Over/Under 2.5 players to attempt a pass
The pick: Over 2.5 players attempt a pass ($US50 to win $US65)
The logic: It’s the last game of the season. Leave nothing in the playbook.
Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
The pick: Yes, Rob Gronkowski will score a touchdown ($US50 to win $US110)
The logic: From 2014 through 2017, Gronkowski scored nine postseason touchdowns in eight postseason games played with Tom Brady. While he has yet to find the end zone in his six postseason games since, he’s one of Brady’s favourite targets and could prove a mismatch for the Chiefs defence that already has its hands full covering the Buccaneers wide receivers. If there’s going to be a lot of touchdowns scored in this game, it feels like Gronk is on the receiving end of one of them.
Will Harrison Butker miss a field goal?
The pick: No, Harrison Butker will not miss a field goal ($US200 to win $US50)
The logic: Butker has attempted 32 field goals this year and made 29 of them, including going 5/5 from more than 50 yards out. He’s a big-game player. He’s good for it.
Joel Embiid points (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers points
The pick: Joel Embiid points (-1.5) over Buccaneers points ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: Joel Embiid is averaging 35.6 points per game over his last five outings, and on Saturday will be facing off against a Brooklyn Nets team that is giving up more points to their opponents than any team in the NBA. With the Buccaneers team total currently sitting around 28 points, this might be a good way to get a slightly higher number heading into Sunday.
Who will score the first touchdown?
The pick: Travis Kelce ($US20 to win $US140), Rob Gronkowski ($US20 to win $US320), and Mecole Hardman ($US10 to win $US180)
The logic: I like having a player on each team to score the first touchdown, so let’s split this bet across the two leading tight ends for both teams and hope they find some sunshine early in the game. But my wild card pick at slightly longer odds is Mecole Hardman, who both serves as a receiver and speedy return man for the Chiefs.
What will be the first scoring play of Super Bowl LV?
The pick: Kansas City touchdown pass to be first scoring play ($US50 to win $US150)
The logic: After getting off to a slow start in the Super Bowl last year, I don’t think the Chiefs make the same mistake again this year. The first time they get the ball, they’re scoring. At +300, a Kansas City passing touchdown for the first score feels like a solid value.
Over/Under 3.5 total sacks
The pick: Over 3.5 total sacks ($US65 to win $US50)
The logic: Jason Pierre-Paul had a feast during the NFC championship, finishing with two sacks on Aaron Rodgers and being a constant presence in the face of the soon-to-be NFL MVP. This Sunday, he’ll be going against a Chiefs offensive line that has had to move several pieces around to cover for some injuries in recent weeks. JPP could be set to feast once again.
Shortest touchdown of the game over/under 1.5 yards
The pick: Under 1.5 yards for the shortest touchdown ($US85 to win $US50)
The logic: You have to lay a little bit extra to get this bet, but someone is scoring from the one-yard line.
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown?
The pick: Yes ($US50 to win $US125)
The logic: It feels like we’re due.
Will there be a successful two-point conversion?
The pick: Yes ($US50 to win $US125)
The logic: Whether it’s a missed extra point earlier in the game, a team trailing by 14 in the fourth quarter, or simply a push for more points in a moment that makes sense, both of these teams are willing to take a shot at the two-point conversion if it becomes necessary.
Will the Chiefs convert a 4th down attempt?
The pick: Yes ($US60 to win $US50)
The logic: Andy Reid went for a fourth-down conversion in the Chiefs opening playoff game against the Browns despite playing with his backup quarterback. He’s aggressive, and at some point during this game, he’s going to go for it. I trust Mahomes and company to convert.
Over/Under 2.5 touchdown passes for Patrick Mahomes
The pick: Over 2.5 touchdown passes for Patrick Mahomes ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: The first time these two teams met, Mahomes threw three touchdowns to Tyreek Hill alone. He’ll still get his, and chances are some other Chiefs will get in on the scoring too on Sunday.
Over/Under 56 total points scored
The pick: Over 56 points scored ($US55 to win $US50)
The logic: It’s more fun to root for scoring than root against it. Points! Points! Points!
Who will win Super Bowl MVP?
The pick: Tyreek Hill ($US20 to win $US320)
The logic: The safe bet here is the quarterback of whichever team you think will win, but those odds are pretty short. I’m backing Kansas City in the game, and while Mahomes took home the award last year, the voters might decide to give it to one of his receivers this time around.
If Hill can have even half of the performance he had in Week 12 against the Buccaneers – torching the Tampa defence for 13 receptions, 269 yards, and three touchdowns – he’d be a good bet to win MVP.
Other interesting options if you think the Buccaneers decide to smother Hill all game are Sammy Watkins or Mecole Hardman, who could come up with some big plays if given the opportunity. Still, Hill is the most unstoppable player on the field between both teams, outside of the quarterback position.
Who will win?
The pick: Kansas City to win outright ($US340 to win $US200), Kansas City -3 ($US110 to win $US100)
The logic: I wrestled with this question for a while. Initially, I planned on doing what we in the business refer to as an “emotional hedge,” betting on the team that I did not want to win (the Buccaneers). If they did, I would at least make some money out of it.
I do not want Tom Brady to win another Super Bowl. I’ve seen enough. We get it, man. You are the greatest of all time, and nobody will challenge that title for a while. It’s yours. Now that we have that established, can we please, for the love of football, get on with the rest of our lives?
I’m tired of Brady. Unlike LeBron, whose repeated trips to the NBA Finals I’ve found compelling to follow, Brady’s annual trudge to greatness is a slog and fills me with dread every year.
Looking around at our pandemic-induced reality, I concluded that we live in hell, where only bad things happen. Last week, I decided to bet on Brady to win it again because that’s what happens when you live in hell. If we’re damned to live through the same cursed moment forever and ever with no end, I might as well cash in on my perception.
But ultimately, I decided I don’t want to believe that we are doomed to the fate of another Brady Super Bowl, even if I think it might be true. I want to live in a world where better things are possible and where a quarterback I genuinely love and a coach I somehow love, even more, can defeat a player who has haunted me since he beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl nearly two decades ago. I want to believe.
This isn’t really analysis, but it’s more fun to bet on things you want to happen than it is to bet on things that will drive you closer to madness. And this is supposed to be fun.
Let’s go, Chiefs.
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